The Morning Dispatch: Dems Poised to Capture Senate

Plus: How today’s raucous count of the electoral college votes will play out.

Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. (Photo by Paras Griffin/Getty Images.)

Happy Wednesday! Today is going to be an insane day. We’re simultaneously looking forward to and dreading telling you all about it tomorrow.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • Georgians went to the polls yesterday to vote in the two U.S. Senate runoff elections, and—while the results are not yet official—Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff appear poised to come out victorious, which would give their party control of the Senate (with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking any 50-50 ties).
  • President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday banning Alipay and a slew of other Chinese apps, citing concerns that the apps vacuum up personal data from American users.
  • Police in Hong Kong arrested dozens of pro-democracy activists yesterday under the Chinese Communist Party-backed national security law that went into effect last July. It’s believed to be the widest use of the law to date.
  • A joint statement from the National Security Agency and its affiliated agencies announced Tuesday that “an Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actor, likely Russian in origin” is responsible for the recent cyberattacks and security breaches of several federal agencies.
  • Kenosha County district attorney Michael Graveley announced on Tuesday he will not bring charges against Rusten Sheskey, the police officer who shot Jacob Blake seven times in the back on August 23, leaving him partially paralyzed. Graveley said it would be difficult for any case brought against Sheskey to prove he was not acting out of self defense.
  • Saudi Arabia announced yesterday that the kingdom will reduce oil production by 1 million barrels per day beginning in February. The move—which Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said was made “with the purpose of supporting our economy”—will have the practical effect of raising oil prices worldwide.
  • University of Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith won the Heisman Trophy last night, becoming the first wide receiver to receive college football’s highest honor since 1991.
  • The United States confirmed 237,650 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday per the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, with 14.4 percent of the 1,652,108 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 3,840 deaths were attributed to the virus on Tuesday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 357,228. According to the COVID Tracking Project, 131,195 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19. According to the Centers for Disease Control, 17,020,575 COVID-19 vaccine doses have been distributed nationwide, and 4,836,469 have been administered.

Not the Night Republicans Were Hoping for 

In the two months since it became clear that both U.S. Senate races in Georgia were headed for a runoff, incumbent GOP Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue have been barnstorming the state presenting themselves to voters as the final “firewall” between America as we know it and an immediate descent into socialism. If their opponents—Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff—prevailed, Democrats would wrest control of the Senate away from Mitch McConnell and the Republicans by the slimmest of margins: Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking 50-50 ties.

On Tuesday, the firewall did not hold. With more than 99 percent of the vote in, Georgians appear to have narrowly shown Loeffler and Perdue the door; as of 6 a.m. ET, Warnock led by about 49,845 votes, and Ossoff was ahead by 12,806. Election officials expect the count to be finalized by this afternoon. Network decision desks from Fox News to the Associated Press to NBC News projected Warnock as the winner in his race last night, while most held off on crowning Ossoff just yet. Some elections analysts—including Decision Desk HQ and Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman—projected Ossoff as the winner of his race as well.

Despite public polling that showed both Democrats leading their Republican opponents by about 2 percentage points, most GOP strategists entered Tuesday privately optimistic about Loeffler and Perdue’s chances. But that optimism began to melt away by the mid-afternoon, when the two GOP campaigns issued an ominous joint press release urging their supporters to get to the polls, saying “this is going to be a very close election and could come down to the difference of just a few votes in a few precincts across the state.” In all likelihood, they saw that their Election Day turnout numbers weren’t hitting the targets necessary to overcome the Democrats’ banked early votes.

As expected, however, neither Republican conceded last night. “This is an exceptionally close election that will require time and transparency to be certain the results are fair and accurate,” the Perdue campaign said. “We will mobilize every available resource and exhaust every legal recourse to ensure all legally cast ballots are properly counted. We believe in the end, Senator Perdue will be victorious.”

What to Expect Later Today

As you may have heard, Congress will convene in a joint session later today to count Electoral College votes. It will be a long day, with proceedings potentially stretching late into the evening.

Some Republican lawmakers are set to challenge results for several states. Each objection will lead to two hours of debate in both chambers of Congress, followed by votes on whether to uphold the challenge. None of the objections will be successful. Both chambers have to approve a challenge for it to be sustained, and not only do Democrats control the House, but a significant number of Senate Republicans (25) have already indicated they won’t join in the mischief.

“Some of my colleagues believe they have found a path [to overturn a state-certified election],” Sen. Tim Scott said in a statement yesterday. “I disagree with their method both in principle and in practice.”

Sen. James Inhofe added on Tuesday that challenging a state’s certification would “be a violation of [his] oath of office.”

“That is not something I am willing to do and is not something Oklahomans would want me to do,” he said.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will reportedly speak later today in favor of certifying Biden’s victory. It will be interesting to see if he condemns his GOP colleagues in the same harsh manner he did Democrats in 2005, when Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer objected to Ohio’s electoral votes going to President George W. Bush.

Worth Your Time

  • Conservative columnist Ross Douthat published a somewhat counterintuitive take yesterday morning: He was hoping that incumbent GOP Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue lost their respective runoff elections, handing Democrats control of both the Senate and unified control of the federal government. “The sense that there is a real political cost to slavishly endorsing not just Trump but also his fantasy politics, his narrative of stolen victory, seems a necessary precondition for the separation that elected Republicans need to seek … between their position and the soon-to-be-former president’s, if they don’t want him to just claim the leadership of their party by default,” Douthat argues. “Defeat for two Republicans who have cynically gone along with the president’s stolen-election narrative, to the point of attacking their own state’s Republican-run electoral system, feels like a plausible place for the diminishment of Trump to start.”
  • In a Wall Street Journal op-ed that echoes many themes of the founding “manifesto” of  The Dispatch, Sen. Ben Sasse reiterates his opposition to several of his Republican colleagues’ plans to object to the Electoral Vote count later today. While none of them actually believe the election was stolen, Sasse argues, our current incentive structure is set up in such a way that they will benefit politically from saying that they do. “Our central crisis isn’t the existence of political drug dealers. It is that we have a society-wide addiction to clickbait crack that treats politics like blood sport,” Sasse writes. “Our media habits are driving this country to the edge of suicide. Despite the evidence, too many Republican voters doubt the election results. But nobody should be surprised. That’s exactly what the outrage-industrial complex has been selling around the clock for nine weeks since Election Day. The same algorithms that know our favorite bands and when we need a shampoo refill are now curating our news feeds. The media ratchets up the rhetoric to increase clicks, eyeballs and revenue. News consumers reward outlets for ‘hot takes’ and for reinforcing their pre-existing opinions. It’s a civics wasteland.”

Presented Without Comment

Also Presented Without Comment

Nathan McDermott @natemcdermott

Joe Manchin walking into a 50-50 Democrat controlled senate

Toeing The Company Line

  • In his latest French Press (🔒), David argues that Trump’s recent phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger “may have violated both state and federal criminal law.” In the call, David writes, Trump demanded Raffensperger “find” enough votes to crown him the winner of Georgia’s election, and he also issued a pretty clear threat against Raffensperger if he did not comply. “A president is not above the law, and we remain a nation of laws,” David concludes. “The futility of the president’s actions is no excuse for their malice, and it does not absolve him of any potential criminal intent.”
  • In a piece for the site today, Charlotte digs into one of the most pressing foreign policy issues the incoming Biden administration will need to tackle: Iran’s increasingly brazen enrichment of uranium to purity levels far beyond the 3.7 percent permitted by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “Iran’s moves belies the fact that their motives aren’t peaceful,” AEI Iran expert Michael Rubin tells her. “This is about testing Biden and thumbing their nose at the world and nothing more.”
  • After Sen. Hawley announced on Twitter last week that he would object to the Electoral College counting process, a Walmart employee accidentally called him a “#soreloser” from the retail giant’s official Twitter account. Hawley responded to the since-deleted tweet, demanding Walmart “apologize for using slave labor” and “for the pathetic wages you pay your workers as you drive mom and pop stores out of business.” Do Hawley’s criticisms of Walmart have any merit? In his latest Capitolism newsletter (🔒), Scott Lincicome analyzes why large retailers actually help both American consumers and the world’s poor.
  • As the Remnant podcast kicks back into gear post-holidays, we figured it would be best to let Jonah make his trek back to D.C. and instead treat you to a secret artifact from a few days after the election. This is a conversation between Jonah and American Enterprise Institute emeritus scholar Charles Murray on the state of libertarianism and liberalism (both of the “small-l” variants) in the aftermath of November 2020. Murray explains why he’s pessimistic, while he and Jonah also extol the virtues of a Madisonian system.

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Haley Byrd Wilt (@byrdinator), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).