The Morning Dispatch: A New Indo-Pacific Partnership

Plus: Should those who have already had COVID have to comply with Biden’s forthcoming OSHA vaccination standard?

Happy Friday! Scientists, please do not attempt to bring woolly mammoths back from extinction. We have watched a lot of movies, and we can pretty much guarantee something is going to go badly wrong.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • French President Emmanuel Macron announced yesterday that a French drone strike last month killed Abu Walid al Sahrawi, the leader of the Islamic State in Greater Sahara. The U.S. government had offered a $5 million reward for information regarding Al Sahrawi’s whereabouts, as he was the mastermind behind a 2017 ambush of U.S. forces in Niger that killed four Green Berets.
  • A federal judge on Thursday blocked the Biden administration from continuing a Trump-era policy—Title 42—that allowed immigration officials to quickly deport or expel migrant families arriving at the southern border on public health grounds during the pandemic. U.S. District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan’s ruling only applies to families, meaning the Biden administration can continue to turn away single adults seeking asylum. Previously under Biden, only unaccompanied children had been exempt from Title 42 enforcement.
  • Special Counsel John Durham, who was appointed during the Trump administration to investigate the origins of the FBI’s Trump/Russia investigation, announced the indictment of attorney Michael Sussman on Thursday. The indictment accuses Sussman of lying to the FBI in 2016 over the capacity in which he provided allegedly damaging information about Trump’s dealings with a Russian bank; he was working for the Hillary Clinton campaign at the time.
  • GOP Rep. Anthony Gonzalez—one of 10 House Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching former President Donald Trump in January—announced Thursday night he will not run for re-election in 2022. “While my desire to build a fuller family life is at the heart of my decision,” he wrote, “it is also true that the current state of our politics, especially many of the toxic dynamics inside our own party, is a significant factor in my decision.” Gonzalez was facing a Trump-backed primary challenger in Ohio.
  • Initial jobless claims increased by 20,000 week-over-week to 332,000 last week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The Census Bureau, meanwhile, announced yesterday that U.S. retail sales rose 0.7 percent from July to August—a significant improvement over the 1.8 percent drop from June to July.

There’s An AUKUS Among Us

(Photo by POIS Yuri Ramsey/Australian Defence Force via Getty Images.)

In the wake of the U.S. military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration is preparing for possible military engagement elsewhere: the Indo-Pacific.

“Today, we’re taking another historic step to deepen and formalize cooperation among all three of our nations because we all recognize the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term,” President Biden said Wednesday in a virtual press conference alongside Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Biden’s remarks solidified the formation of AUKUS, a new trilateral partnership between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia that will focus on sharing sensitive military technology between the three countries in the cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and undersea domains in the Indo-Pacific.

China went unmentioned in Wednesday’s press conference—and a senior administration official told reporters in a call outlining the agreement that “this partnership is not aimed or about any one country”—but Biden’s vague references to “strategic stability” in the Indo-Pacific are plainly meant a response to China’s aggressive efforts to expand its power and influence in the region.

joint press conference Thursday between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and their Australian counterparts helped fill in the blanks. “We spoke in detail about China’s destabilizing activities and Beijing’s efforts to coerce and intimidate other countries, contrary to established rules and norms,” Austin said. “And while we seek a constructive, results-oriented relationship with the PRC, we will remain clear-eyed in our view of Beijing’s efforts to undermine the established international order.”


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Should OSHA’s Mandate Exclude Natural Immunity?

In yesterday’s TMD, we noted that the legality of the Biden administration’s vaccine/testing mandate will likely depend on how “narrow” the emergency ruling from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ends up being. Will it exempt remote workers who do not interact with any of their colleagues in person? Will the requirement apply to those who have some natural immunity to the virus through previous COVID-19 infection?

The latter question is the subject of Andrew’s latest piece, up today on the site. “Biden’s insistence that the vaccinated need to be protected from those around them raises eyebrows, given that the vaccines remain incredibly effective at staving off serious COVID illness and death,” he writes. “But another important question about the forthcoming mandate remains unaddressed too: What about those unvaccinated workers who don’t pose even that miniscule level of threat to their co-workers, because they’ve already acquired immunity by recovering from the coronavirus?”

It’s possible the OSHA rule will make an exception for the previously infected. But don’t count on it.

OSHA, which Biden has tasked with creating the rule in question, has yet to release the specifics of its requirements. But there’s little reason to suspect that the previously infected will receive any dispensation from the eventual requirement. The CDC’s recommendations for who should get the vaccine make no distinction between those who have previously had COVID and those who have not. In response to an inquiry from The Dispatch, an administration official said that question would be part of OSHA’s rulemaking process, and deferred questions about who should get the vaccine to the Department of Health and Human Services: “It’s a health question, not [one for the White House].”

The data on exactly how good natural immunity is remains preliminary, but is certainly strong enough to show the formerly infected unvaccinated don’t present a ‘grave danger’ to those around them.

An emergency temporary OSHA standard is no joke: The governing statute requires the agency to demonstrate a “grave danger” exists in the workplace, one that requires an emergency rule to protect workers. And it’s no insult to OSHA’s brain trust to say they’re going to have a bear of a time trying to think up a definition of “grave danger” that gives a green light to those who are vaccinated but not to former COVID patients who are not.

The most significant recent piece of data on this question comes from a huge (albeit not yet peer-reviewed) Israeli study, which found that “natural immunity”—that obtained through infection—confers “longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease, and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity.”

If that’s true, it’s arguably the whole ball game—if natural immunity is stronger than vaccine-induced immunity, it’s laughable on its face that former COVID patients would be compelled to be vaccinated out of a desire to protect their already vaccinated brethren. Other preprint studies found less striking results, putting the effectiveness of natural immunity roughly at the same level as that of vaccination. But even these underscore the silliness of treating the vaccinated as safe as a matter of policy while shunning the formerly infected unvaccinated as possible workplace Typhoid Marys.

Worth Your Time

  • Even if it’s true, Yasmin Tayag thinks President Biden should stop referring to COVID-19 as a pandemic of the unvaccinated. “The way the mandates are being presented is driving a wedge between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. If the goal is to inoculate enough people to reach herd immunity, this approach may eventually backfire,” she writes in The Atlantic. “‘If you get into these scenarios where you start pitting one group against another, you create tension, you create resistance,’ says Simon Bacon, a behavioral scientist at Concordia University in Montreal. ‘What you really need to do is totally deflate that.’”
  • The back and forth over Gen. Mark Milley earlier this week is a perfect example of why the best approach to the news is often to just take a deep breath and wait for more information. “According to several senior Trump administration officials I spoke with this week, the truth is more complicated than either Milley’s attackers or defenders admit,” Josh Rogin writes in The Washington Post. “When proper context is added to the Milley calls, the picture that emerges is not of a brave military officer saving the country from a crazy president hellbent on starting World War III. It’s a more mundane, but all-too-common Washington story of several powerful men with big egos who can’t get along, causing government dysfunction and diplomatic confusion. The episode also illustrates how deeply U.S. foreign policy nowadays is falling victim to our hyperpolarized domestic politics.”
  • Few reporters are more plugged in to intra-Democratic Party politics than Dave Weigel, and his ‘The Trailer’ newsletter on the California recall election aftermath is well worth your time. “Democrats now believe vaccination mandates can win votes,” he writes. “The turning point in the recall election came early in August, when Newsom announced new vaccination-or-testing mandates for health-care and education workers — and then, days later, began running ads about them. The recall election, the ads warned, was a ‘matter of life and death.’ The campaign’s own polling found that a supermajority of Californians supported the policy, and the idea of ripping it away was a powerful motivator.”

Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

  • Jonah’s former colleague Ramesh Ponnuru stopped by The Remnant this week for a conversation about the jurisprudence of abortion and the state of the pro-life movement. Plus: Inflation, common good conservatism, and Star Trek.
  • In his French Press yesterday (🔒), David makes the case that The Billionaire Space Race is good for all of us. “Elite innovation tends, in relatively short order, to be democratized and improved,” he writes. “From cars, to planes, to ships, to hotels, to our own homes, virtually every single mode of travel and luxury that we now take for granted started its life on this earth as a luxury enjoyed by a tiny few.”

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Charlotte Lawson (@lawsonreports), Audrey Fahlberg (@AudreyFahlberg), Ryan Brown (@RyanP_Brown), Harvest Prude (@HarvestPrude), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).