The Morning Dispatch: A Trump-GOP Temperature Check

Plus: President Biden’s Tuesday address to the United Nations.

Happy Wednesday! If you’re still a little groggy this morning, check out this video of White House staffers repeatedly shouting “Thank you!” over reporters trying to ask President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Boris Johnson questions at the White House yesterday. We promise it’ll wake you right up.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • Johnson & Johnson released the results of a Phase 3 study on Tuesday showing that a single dose of its COVID-19 vaccine remained 79 percent effective against infection and 81 percent effective against hospitalization—even as the Delta variant became the dominant strain in the United States. The data also showed that a booster dose—given 56 days after the initial one—increased effectiveness against symptomatic illness to 94 percent in the United States and effectiveness against severe COVID-19 to 100 percent. J&J said it plans to submit the data to public health regulators for consideration.
  • The House voted along party lines last night to advance legislation that would fund the federal government through December 2021 and suspend the debt ceiling through December 2022. The package is likely doomed in the Senate, where it needs 60 votes to get to President Biden’s desk and Republicans have made clear they will not support it. Sens. Mitch McConnell and Richard Shelby introduced a competing short-term government funding bill Tuesday night that did not include a suspension of the debt limit.
  • The European Court of Human Rights ruled on Tuesday that Russia was responsible for the fatal 2006 poisoning of former KGB officer Aleksandr Litvinenko, who fled Russia after being fired from the country’s security service and was granted asylum in the United Kingdom.
  • Sudanese officials said they foiled an attempted coup on Tuesday undertaken by adherents to Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the longtime dictator who was ousted in 2019. “This is an extension of the attempts by remnants since the fall of the former regime to abort the civilian democratic transition,” Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said.
  • The Treasury Department on Tuesday announced sanctions against cryptocurrency exchange SUEX “for its part in facilitating financial transactions for ransomware actors.” It is the first instance of the United States levying sanctions against a virtual currency platform.

A Trump-GOP Temperature Check

Have you ever seen that old German optical illusion featuring a strategically drawn animal? Of any two people who take a look at the sketch, and one might come away sure it’s a duck and the other certain it’s a rabbit—and they’d both be right.

A similar dynamic is currently playing out in Washington with respect to former President Donald Trump and his future in the Republican Party. Everyone is looking at the same political landscape, but depending on which details are emphasized, Trump is either a has-been rapidly losing his grip on power or a lock to be the 2024 GOP nominee.

On the one hand, Trump lost in 2020, and—after trying and failing to carry out a political coup—his net approval rating tanked to the lowest level of his presidency. A record 10 members of his own party voted to impeach him in the House, and an unprecedented seven Republican senators opted to convict him in the Senate. Even those who didn’t—like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell—were scrambling to put as much distance between themselves and the standard bearer of their party as possible.

In the months since, Trump’s ability to dominate the news cycle has all but vanished alongside his social media accounts, and he’s relying on increasingly desperate ploys—like providing commentary alongside a $49.99 pay-per-view boxing match on September 11—to garner attention. Republicans are increasingly willing to buck him—19 GOP senators voted in favor of a $550 billion infrastructure package Trump decried as “weak, foolish, and dumb”—and even his strongest allies aren’t echoing his renewed calls to replace McConnell as minority leader in the Senate. Trump’s hand-picked candidate lost to another Republican in the TX-6 special election a few months ago, and current elected officials have emerged as more effective leaders in opposing the Biden administration. His presence certainly isn’t deterring would-be 2024 candidates—including Mike PenceNikki HaleyTom CottonMike Pompeo, and Ron DeSantis—from beginning to lay the necessary groundwork for a campaign.

But there’s also plenty of evidence the former president remains as formidable as ever. Sixty-eight percent of GOP and lean-GOP voters told Republican pollster Echelon Insights in August they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 primary, compared to just 25 percent looking for a different candidate—and that split has grown in the months since January 6. After a brief hiatus, more Republican voters once again consider themselves primarily a supporter of Donald Trump than the Republican Party.

Biden Addresses United Nations General Assembly

The 76th United Nations General Assembly came at an awkward time for President Biden. Between last month’s fall of Kabul—and the ensuing international uproar it provoked—and a recent falling out with our French allies over the U.S.’s nuclear-powered submarine deal with Australia (AUKUS), there was no shortage of global tensions for him to address.

But in step with the administration’s recent foreign policy posturing, the president delivered another speech seemingly detached from the gravity of its context. Drawing on standard platitudes of multilateralism and diplomacy, Biden focused on areas of greater international consensus—climate change, technological development, humanitarian aid, and the COVID-19 pandemic—while giving little to no air time to the crisis in Afghanistan, AUKUS, or America’s strategic competition with Beijing. When he did address them, he was on the defensive.

“Instead of continuing to fight the wars of the past,” Biden said, alluding to the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, “we are fixing our eyes on devoting our resources to the challenges that hold the keys to our collective future: ending this pandemic; addressing the climate crisis; managing the shifts in global power dynamics; shaping the rules of the world on vital issues like trade, cyber, and emerging technologies; and facing the threat of terrorism as it stands today.”

“The world today is not the world of 2001 … and the United States is not the same country we were when we were attacked on 9/11, 20 years ago. Today, we’re better equipped to detect and prevent terrorist threats, and we are more resilient in our ability to repel them and to respond,” Biden added, just days after the Pentagon acknowledged an August drone strike killed 10 civilians—and no terrorists—in Kabul. “We know how to build effective partnerships to dismantle terrorist networks by targeting their financing and support systems, countering their propaganda, preventing their travel, as well as disrupting imminent attacks.”

Worth Your Time

  • In The Atlantic yesterday, science reporter Katherine Wu argues we should think about post-vaccination COVID-19 as an entirely different—and less worrisome—disease than the one that shut down the world last year. “The measles virus is ultra-infectious, much more so than SARS-CoV-2, and kills many of the uninoculated children it afflicts,” she writes. “But for those who have gotten all their shots, it’s a less formidable foe, which we’ve learned to live with long-term. That’s the direction that many experts hope we’re headed in with SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. … On average, breakthrough infections seem to be briefer, milder, and less contagious. Among the fully immunized, catching the coronavirus doesn’t mean the same thing it did last year.”
  • We’ve written a lot about GOP state legislatures’ efforts to undo pandemic-era voting expansions and add new restrictions to boot, but some Republicans are now wondering if the clampdown on absentee ballots—undertaken primarily to appease their own voters’ Trump-inspired concerns about election fraud—will backfire on their own party. “In Texas, one Republican state legislator wrote a newspaper column where he openly wondered why the legislators were ‘trying to make it harder for Republican voters to vote?’ Dante Chinni reports for the Wall Street Journal. “In Iowa, a Republican election commissioner from rural Adams County asked the same thing at a hearing on new voter rules in that state. And in Florida, one former Republican campaign operative worried that the new laws could rile voters of color and turn them out in greater numbers.”

Presented Without Comment

Also Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

  • For more on Trump’s reemergence, check out this week’s Sweep. “GOP leaders in Washington thought they had reached an understanding with Trump in the wake of 2020,” Sarah writes. “Sure, Rep. Liz Cheney, the former No. 3 in the House GOP, who lost her leadership position within the party for continuing to insist that Trump had lost the 2020 election, had to go. But for those willing to keep their mouths shut, they believed, Trumpism was still subordinate to Republicanism. Perhaps not.”
  • It’s an incredibly busy time in Congress, and yesterday’s Uphill has all you need to know. “For the first time since July, both chambers of Congress are back in session, and there is plenty on the to-do list,” Harvest and Ryan write, “including a bill to keep the government funded and suspend the debt ceiling, while Democrats seek to advance President Joe Biden’s sweeping $3.5 trillion infrastructure and social investments package and finalize a $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill that focuses on traditional items like roads, bridges, and airports.”
  • Chris Stirewalt returned to The Remnant on Tuesday for punditry so intense it could rival the summer heat of New Orleans. He and Jonah discuss the intersection of Christianity and politics, the Republican Party’s embrace of working-class men, and the return of radical chic.
  • David’s in a bit of a predicament. “There are reasons why Joe Biden’s approval rating is dropping to Trump-like levels,” he writes in his latest French Press (🔒), citing the U.S.’ Afghanistan withdrawal, more-than-transitory inflation, chaotic border situation, and continued coronavirus struggles. But the Republican Party—which should serve as an electoral check on Biden in 2022—is not ready to govern. “Are House Republicans led by serious adults or by Trumpist vassals, beholden both to an utterly unfit former president and to his increasingly radicalized base?” he asks. “And won’t their victory do nothing but embolden Trump and energize that base?”

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Charlotte Lawson (@lawsonreports), Audrey Fahlberg (@AudreyFahlberg), Ryan Brown (@RyanP_Brown), Harvest Prude (@HarvestPrude), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).