The Morning Dispatch: Tripling Down on COVID Shots

Plus: How our exit from Afghanistan will affect U.S. military strategy in the far East.

Happy Friday! When all those sci-fi novels promised virtual reality in the future, we’re not sure glorified conference calls are what they had in mind.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • A Pentagon spokesman announced Thursday that the United States had evacuated approximately 7,000 people from Afghanistan since Saturday—including 2,000 in the previous 24 hours, well below the Biden administration’s goal of 5,000 to 9,000 evacuations per day.
  • The Department of Education announced Thursday it will wipe out more than $5.8 billion in student loan debt for approximately 323,000 borrowers deemed to have a total and permanent disability.
  • The official death toll following Sunday’s earthquake in Haiti has risen to nearly 2,200. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) tool, however, estimates the ultimate casualty count could end up being at least five times that.
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh sent a letter to lawmakers on Thursday reiterating that President Biden believes it is “appropriate” for the federal $300-per-week unemployment insurance boost to expire on September 6 as planned. They added, however, that states can tap into the American Rescue Plan’s $350 billion in state and local aid to provide “a more gradual wind down of income support for unemployed workers” if they so choose.
  • The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday filed an amended antitrust lawsuit against Facebook, arguing the company “resorted to an illegal buy-or-bury scheme to maintain its dominance.” A federal judge dismissed a similar FTC lawsuit against the tech giant earlier this summer, but gave the agency a chance to revise its arguments.
  • Initial jobless claims decreased by 29,000 week-over-week to 348,000 last week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday—the lowest tally since the beginning of the pandemic.
  • Toyota announced yesterday it will cut its worldwide production by 40 percent in September due to persistent global supply chain issues, particularly regarding microchips.
  • Sen. Roger Wicker, Sen. Angus King, and Sen. John Hickenlooper each announced Thursday that they tested positive for COVID-19. All three are fully vaccinated, and experiencing only mild symptoms.

Is a Third Shot in Your Future?

(Photo by Jacob King – WPA Pool / Getty Images.)

While the world’s attention has been understandably focused on the situation in Afghanistan, the Delta variant has continued doing what it does best: spreading.

The sources upon which TMD had come to rely in compiling its daily COVID data have unfortunately stopped providing some of the more relevant statistics, but the New York Times’ Coronavirus in the U.S. data visualization has proven a worthy replacement.

The seven-day average for confirmed new cases has climbed to 143,792—a 44 percent increase over the past two weeks, reaching a level not seen in the United States since early February. Hospitalizations and deaths are following suit, with their rolling averages rising 53 and 108 percent over the past 14 days, respectively.

The current wave—of which, per CDC surveillance testing, the Delta variant now makes up nearly 99 percent—is absolutely pummeling the southeastern United States. The Alabama Hospital Association said there was not a single ICU bed available in the state on Wednesday, and Mississippi just opened its second emergency field hospital this week. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida are averaging about one daily COVID-19 death per 100,000 residents—nearly four times the national average of 0.27.

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Alabama and Mississippi have the two lowest vaccination rates in the country, with just 36 percent of residents fully vaccinated, and Louisiana is fifth lowest at 39 percent. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves last week labeled the shots safe, effective, and the “best tool we have moving forward to beat the virus,” but added a few days later he will “always defend” his constituents’ right not to get them.

But whether it’s the growing number of public- or private-sector mandates, or simply fear of the Delta variant, the pace of daily vaccination is once again on the rise. One month ago, the United States was averaging 497,000 shots per day. Now, that average is up to 823,000—and more than 1 million shots were administered yesterday, for the first time since July 1. All in all, slightly more than 70 percent of the nation’s eligible people have received at least one vaccine dose, and slightly less than 60 percent are fully vaccinated.

The definition of “fully vaccinated,” however, could soon be in flux. On Wednesday—just days after the FDA and CDC approved COVID-19 booster shots for immunocompromised individuals only (because they have been demonstrated to have a uniquely poor immune response to the vaccine)—the Biden administration’s top public health officials issued a joint statement announcing their plan to begin offering third doses to all Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients this fall eight months removed from their second dose, pending FDA and CDC approval. (They say Johnson & Johnson recipients will likely need a booster as well, but data will not be available for a few more weeks.)

Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific

In the months and years preceding the United States’ departure from Afghanistan, the Biden and Trump administrations reframed the coming withdrawal as a “shift” to the Indo-Pacific. At best, our commitment to the Afghan government and people was a distraction from the far more pressing goal of combating Chinese aggression. At worst, the two foreign policy goals were mutually exclusive.

These were, of course, ludicrous claims, even without the benefit of hindsight. U.S. engagement abroad isn’t a finite resource—and Afghanistan occupies a critical geographic location, bordering China and former Soviet republics. Beijing and Moscow have responded predictably amidst the fall of Kabul, and great power competition analysts now have more to worry about than they did prior to the U.S. withdrawal.

When asked about American condemnations of China’s genocide in Xinjiang yesterday, foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying had this to say: “When the world is shocked and saddened by the chaos and misery at Kabul’s airport, a handful of politicians in the U.S. are turning a blind eye to the ongoing tragedy of its own making … Anyone that doesn’t shut his or her eyes can see it is the U.S. that has committed genocide and crimes against humanity and the U.S. is the biggest threat to democracy and human rights.”

While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has concerns about safe haven for Islamic extremism in its own backyard, Beijing is nothing if not pragmatic. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi met with Taliban leader—and rumored Taliban-appointed president of Afghanistan—Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar more than three weeks ago. Many speculate that the Chinese government will seek to expand its Belt and Road Initiative to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and exploit the country’s rare earth metals.

Worth Your Time

  • Princeton security researchers Jonathan Mayer and Anunay Kulshrestha built an experimental child sexual abuse detection system two years ago very similar to the one Apple is rolling out this fall—and they concluded that the technology was dangerous. “We’re not concerned because we misunderstand how Apple’s system works. The problem is, we understand exactly how it works,” they write for the Washington Post. “Our system could be easily repurposed for surveillance and censorship. The design wasn’t restricted to a specific category of content; a service could simply swap in any content-matching database, and the person using that service would be none the wiser. A foreign government could, for example, compel a service to out people sharing disfavored political speech. That’s no hypothetical: WeChat, the popular Chinese messaging app, already uses content matching to identify dissident material. India enacted rules this year that could require pre-screening content critical of government policy. Russia recently fined Google, Facebook and Twitter for not removing pro-democracy protest materials.”
  • National security columnist Josh Rogin has a stark warning for the Biden administration. “President Biden told the world that the most important struggle of the 21st century was between democracies and autocracies—and he promised that the United States would lead the fight,” Rogin writes. “Eight months into his presidency, the autocrats are the ones on the march. As democracies collapse, so do the aspirations of millions for greater dignity, agency and freedom. Afghanistan is just the latest example. … So far, autocracy has advanced in several places on Biden’s watch. In Myanmar, there was a military coup in February that the world’s democracies did little to avert or respond to. In Tunisia last month, President Kais Saied orchestrated a “self-coup,” in which he used anti-democratic means to consolidate his own power. Again, the free world shrugged.”

Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

  • In yesterday’s French Press (🔒), David pushes back against a narrative that is emerging in the wake of Afghanistan’s collapse: that the United States should have left Afghanistan in late 2001 after the military’s initial rout of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. “Surprisingly easy victories can be deceptive. The Taliban wasn’t destroyed. Al-Qaeda wasn’t destroyed. Mullah Omar was alive. Osama bin Laden was alive,” he writes. “If we left Afghanistan in early 2002, who would have returned to power? In all likelihood, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Mullah Omar, and Osama bin Laden. The Taliban would have won. That would have been an utterly intolerable outcome to the American people. The purpose of our intervention into Afghanistan wasn’t merely punitive, it was protective.”
  • Thursday’s episode of Advisory Opinions features Sarah and David discussing the Biden administration’s proposal to tie mask mandates to civil rights law, the latest “remain in Mexico” policy developments, and what a Texas Supreme Court ruling means for Democratic lawmakers from the state trying to avoid arrest.

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Ryan Brown (@RyanP_Brown), Harvest Prude (@HarvestPrude), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).