The Morning Dispatch: Taliban Holdings Grow

Plus: Lawmakers examine the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack.

Afghan security force members on June 5, 2021. (Photo by Sayed Mominzadah/Xinhua via Getty Images.)

Happy Wednesday! Let’s get right to it.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • U.S. Central Command reported yesterday that the U.S. military has completed more than 50 percent of its withdrawal from Afghanistan ahead of President Joe Biden’s deadline of September 11. “The U.S. has officially handed over six facilities to the Afghan Ministry of Defense,” the update reads.
  • The Senate voted 68-32 on Tuesday to pass the $200 billion U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, which aims to bolster U.S. competitiveness with China. The measure will need to be approved by the House and President Biden to become law.
  • The Senate also voted on Tuesday to confirm Julien Xavier Neals and Regina Rodriguez as district court judges, 66-33 and 72-28, respectively. The pair are the first of President Biden’s federal judicial nominees to be confirmed.
  • The White House announced a new task force on supply chain issues Tuesday, following up on an executive order President Biden signed in February.
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken told lawmakers this week the United States plans to enter into trade talks with Taiwan. The move is sure to increase tensions with the Chinese Communist Party. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy said the U.S. should “stop elevating its relationship with the Taiwan region in any substantive way.”
  • Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe won the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary last night and will now face off against Republican Glenn Youngkin in November. In New Jersey, former assembly member Jack Ciattarelli won the Republican gubernatorial primary and the right to take on incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
  • The “delta” coronavirus variant first identified in India has driven a rise in new COVID-19 cases in the U.K., and it is also spreading—to a much lesser degree—in the United States. Two doses of an authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccine appear to be effective against this strain.
  • The United States confirmed 13,062 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday per the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, with 1.5 percent of the 855,248 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 377 deaths were attributed to the virus on Tuesday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 598,323. According to the Centers for Disease Control, 16,835 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19. Meanwhile, 1,071,750 COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered yesterday, with 171,731,584 Americans having now received at least one dose.

Taliban On the Rise

Longtime Vital Interests readers may recall analysis from Thomas Joscelyn—prescient analysis, we might add—arguing a flawed deal with the Taliban and full American withdrawal from Afghanistan would spell disaster for the sitting Kabul government.

Writing in February 2020, Joscelyn highlighted two key features to look out for, 10 days before the Trump administration reached an agreement with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar. 1) An unconditional withdrawal by American and coalition forces from Afghanistan would inevitably yield swift and sweeping territorial losses by Afghan government forces. 2) As the Taliban’s holdings grow, so too does a safe haven for al-Qaeda leadership and fighters.

“The Taliban has steadfastly refused to recognize the Afghan government’s legitimacy. Instead, the Taliban consistently says it is fighting to resurrect its own ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’ (IEA)—the same totalitarian regime the U.S. and its allies toppled in 2001. The Taliban-led insurgency has been acquiring rural territory and contesting security forces ever since then, but the insurgency is stronger today than ever, meaning the jihadists are positioning themselves to overthrow the Afghan government.”

“The State Department is reportedly still trying to sell Americans on the idea that the Taliban will somehow renounce al-Qaeda… The bottom line: The Taliban has lied about its partnership with al-Qaeda from the beginning, and there is no reason to believe whatever the Taliban’s negotiating team in Doha says now. The Taliban and al-Qaeda remain closely intertwined on the battlefield to this day.”

As these two warnings came to fruition amid the American and NATO troop draw-down, accelerating rapidly beginning with the U.S.’s original exit date of May 1, Joscelyn was again among the first to take note. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal, 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals and 95 of its more than 400 districts are now under Taliban control. Many others are contested and/or on the verge of falling.

With three months until the Biden administration’s withdrawal deadline of September 11 (although many analysts anticipate a full exit will come much sooner), the Taliban appears to be reverting to its time-tested strategy of occupying rural areas surrounding government-controlled urban centers before closing in. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, the insurgent group is poised to conduct “large-scale offensives” into population centers as early as this summer.

Ransomware in the Spotlight

When Colonial Pipeline announced last month it had restored full operation to its pipeline network, drivers across the east coast breathed a collective sigh of relief that the burgeoning gas shortage would soon be over. But that good news was soured somewhat when it was revealed how Colonial had been able to solve its problem: By capitulating to the ransom demands of the cybercrime group that had taken its computer systems hostage.

This week, the Justice Department announced it had managed to trace and claw back more than $2 million of the company’s $4.4 million payment—transacted in the cryptocurrency Bitcoin—to the hacking group DarkSide. (In fact, the government managed to recover 80 percent of the Bitcoin that Colonial sent. The loss in value was primarily attributable to a significant sag in the price of Bitcoin itself in the days since Colonial sent the payment.)

But the affair—along with a rash of other high-profile cyberattacks in recent months—came as a grim reminder that critical U.S. infrastructure is vulnerable to this sort of attack.

On Tuesday, Colonial Pipeline President and CEO Joseph Blount testified before a pair of congressional committees about what led to the hack and what can be done to prevent similar attacks in the future. Lawmakers were in general agreement that the security dangers of attacks like this in the future present a significant threat.

“Make no mistake: If we do not step up our cybersecurity readiness, the consequences will be severe,” Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who chairs the Senate Homeland Security Committee, said Tuesday.

Worth Your Time

  • In his latest New York Times column, Ross Douthat questions the conventional wisdom among many progressives about the possibility of a GOP coup following the 2024 elections. “Since Trump really is likely to be the Republican nominee in the next election, it’s worth taking alarmist scenarios seriously, in case next time turns out worse,” he writes. “But taking them seriously doesn’t mean treating them as some kind of certain doom.”
  • For The Atlantic, Emma Green sat down with former Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam, whose recently published book Faithful Presence addresses what he sees as an unfortunate conflation of politics and faith among Christians. “Haslam is willing to challenge his fellow Christians to be more Christ-like in the way they do politics, encouraging them to turn off Fox News and be more charitable toward their political opponents,” Green writes. “But he’s squishy about naming and blaming fellow Christian political leaders for the example they’ve set.”
  • For more on ransomware, check out Tuesday’s edition of The Daily, the New York Times’ weekday morning podcast. The problem, Times cybersecurity and digital espionage reporter Nicole Perlroth says, has been building for years. But it’s gone from isolated attacks holding individuals’ computers hostage to an emerging billion-dollar industry that has crippled entities in business and government.

Presented Without Comment

Also Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

  • In the latest Remnant, Jonah is joined by Jonathan Rauch, whose new book—The Constitution of Knowledge: A Defense of Truth—explores our current epistemic crisis and how all Americans can defend free inquiry and objective reality.
  • We’re still 17 months away from November 2022, but there’s no shortage of news on the electoral politics front. Check out Sarah and Chris Stirewalt’s latest Sweep to learn about the Commonwealth of Virginia’s taxpayer-funded partisan primary system, the mapping of small-dollar donors’ 2020 contributions, the GOP’s turn toward low-propensity voters, and President Biden’s reputation as a liberal.
  • Members of Congress from both parties are calling for the Biden administration to conduct a mass evacuation of Afghan interpreters, others who helped U.S. forces, and their family members before American troops complete their withdrawal from the country. “Our Afghan friends and allies are at greater risk than ever before,” a bipartisan group of 21 House members wrote in a letter to Biden. They said applicants for the special visa program that allows allies to become lawful permanent citizens could be temporarily held in Guam while they are being processed. Read more in yesterday’s Uphill.
  • On the website today: Jonah on the Democrats’ Manchin problem and Reuel Marc Gerecht on the coming Iranian elections.

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Haley Byrd Wilt (@byrdinator), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Ryan Brown (@RyanP_Brown), Harvest Prude (@HarvestPrude), Tripp Grebe (@tripper_grebe), Emma Rogers (@emw_96), Price St. Clair (@PriceStClair1), Jonathan Chew (@JonathanChew19), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).