The Morning Dispatch: The Impact of Trump’s Troop Withdrawals

Plus: Airlines struggle as demand for flights remains low.

Happy Thursday! All those 19-year-olds getting drafted into the NBA last night made your Morning Dispatchers feel old!

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • Pfizer and BioNTech said yesterday they plan to apply for emergency FDA authorization for their COVID-19 vaccine “within days,” after the results from the companies’ Phase III study showed the vaccine to be 95 percent effective against the coronavirus.
  • New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced all public schools in the city will move entirely online after New York City’s coronavirus test positivity reached 3 percent, a threshold backed by the city’s powerful teachers’ union. Indoor dining and gyms remain open at a reduced capacity in New York.
  • Rep. Nancy Pelosi was renominated by House Democrats yesterday to lead the House of Representatives for another two-year term, which she hinted would be her last as speaker.
  • The Trump campaign officially requested a partial recount in Wisconsin, alleging—without evidence—“mistakes and fraud” across the state, but particularly in Milwaukee and Dane counties, which broke heavily for Joe Biden. The campaign paid $3 million to the Wisconsin Elections Commission for the recount, as Biden’s lead in the state is large enough to not trigger one automatically.
  • The United States confirmed 181,640 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday per the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, with 11.7 percent of the 1,553,852 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 1,928 deaths were attributed to the virus on Wednesday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 250,483. According to the COVID Tracking Project, 79,410 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19.

The Impact of U.S. Troop Drawdowns in Afghanistan and Iraq

In an effort to follow through on a core promise of his 2016 campaign, President Trump announced plans to withdraw roughly 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan and Iraq before President-elect Biden enters office in January. Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller took to the Pentagon podium Tuesday to lay out the repositioning, characterizing it as an effort to end the country’s costly “forever wars.” But to some foreign policy analysts and lawmakers, the abrupt announcement reads as a base political move with tangible regional and global security repercussions.

With two months left in his presidency, Trump is poised to follow the lead of his predecessor’s 2011 retreat from Iraq. At the time, President Obama’s move was met with a flurry of criticism and warnings, validated when ISIS filled the power vacuum left behind by U.S. forces. In Afghanistan—where the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State all retain a presence to varying degrees—the aftermath of a withdrawal could come with similar repercussions.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said as much Tuesday, when he warned that “the consequences of a premature American exit” from Afghanistan “would likely be even worse than President Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, which fueled the rise of ISIS and a new round of global terrorism.” Iraq, with only 3,000 U.S. troops remaining, is less likely to feel the immediate impact of an American withdrawal.

Boeing 737 Cleared by FAA, But Air Travel Demand Dwindles

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Wednesday gave the go ahead for Boeing’s 737 Max to hit the skies again, formally ending a 20-month emergency order of prohibition on the airplanes that began in March 2019 after fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia killed 346 people. “The path that led us to this point was long and grueling, but we said from the start that we would take the time necessary to get this right,” FAA chief Steve Dickson said in a video message on Wednesday. “I am 100 percent comfortable with my family flying on it.”

The news is undoubtedly good for Boeing and its shareholders, but the return of the 737 Max comes at a time of unprecedented volatility for the airline industry; fear of the coronavirus and a dramatic surge in unemployment have occasioned a plunge in profits. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), American passenger airlines reported a net loss of $11 billion in Q2 2020. They reported a net profit of $4.8 billion in Q2 2019.

The ebb and flow of lockdowns and travel restrictions over the past eight months have all but eviscerated consumer demand for air travel, forcing airlines to cancel flights, slash labor costs, and ground fleets of planes in boneyards in response to a drastic plunge in revenue. Business travel has also taken a huge hit during the pandemic, while working from home and Zoom conferences have transformed the teleworking world.

Worth Your Time

  • Messenger RNA has been in the headlines recently as the technology underpinning the successful vaccine trials by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech. Damian Garde and Jonathan Saltzman, writing in Stat News, outline the underdog story of a bleeding-edge technology whose “prospects have swung billions of dollars on the stock market, made and imperiled scientific careers, and fueled hopes that it could be a breakthrough that allows society to return to normalcy.” Messenger RNA relies on replicating the RNA the body produces to tell cells which proteins, including antibodies, to create. But it was mired in setbacks until the research of Katalin Kiriko, a Hungarian-born American scientist who spent years working through rejection: “Every night I was working: grant, grant, grant…it came back always no, no, no,” she told Stat News. But Harvard academics, in Moderna’s case, and German biotech entrepreneurs, in BioNTech’s, paid attention to Kiriko’s research, creating companies that are now at the forefront of the global fight against COVID-19.
  • Michael Lind, writing in Tabletreframes the ongoing turmoil over “wokeness” as the WASPs (or at least their descendants) reclaim power. The Yankee Protestant ethos dominated American politics from the 1860s to the New Deal, which represented “the partial overthrow of Yankee Protestant hegemony in American society by a coalition of outsiders, chiefly provincial Southern and Western whites and European-American immigrants in the North, many of them Catholic.” But WASPs retained some control over elite institutions like the Ivies, the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations, and America’s “Deep State,” allowing them to preserve and create “a version of Social Gospel Protestantism.” Lind concludes that what we are seeing  now “is a power grab carried out chiefly by some white Americans against other white Americans,” namely the “recalcitrant Southern, Catholic, and Jewish whites, along with members of ethnic and racial minorities who refuse to be assimilated into the new national orthodoxy.”
  • In doing research for the newsletter today, we came across this sharp Mercatus Center policy brief from Veronique de Rugy and Gary Leff making the case against a second airline bailout. “In spite of the first bailout, the largest carriers have already separated from 30 percent of their nonunion staff. This new bailout will do nothing to bring these jobs back and, therefore, isn’t about preserving old employment levels,” they argue. “Bailing out airlines the first time around was a bad idea; doing it again would be even more counterproductive. It only delays the inevitable. Adapting to less demand is not only a necessity; it should be welcomed. Airlines should be more flexible to adapt to emergencies, even if doing so will never be painless or ideal.”

Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

  • In his midweek G-File (🔒), Jonah makes the case for something that may not be in the best business interests of The Dispatch, but is true regardless: You should read a wide variety of news sources from across the political spectrum. “One of the most amazing things about the culture war is how so many of its combatants are convinced their side is losing in a rout,” he writes. “If lefties read more right-wing stuff, they’d learn that there are a lot of people out there who believe that the left has been blitzkrieging across the cultural landscape unopposed for decades. And if righties read more lefties they’d discover that a lot of left-wingers write as if they are desperate chroniclers of an extinction-level event.”
  • On the latest episode of The Dispatch Podcast, Sarah and the guys talk Big Tech regulation, COVID-19’s third wave, Biden’s Cabinet, and Trump’s refusal to concede the presidential election.

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), James P. Sutton (@jamespsuttonsf), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).

Photograph by Thomas Watkins/AFP/Getty Images.