— So much voting: With just one week left until Election Day, nearly 70 million Americans had already cast a vote by Tuesday afternoon. Cheers to Democracy, because that’s more than half the total number of votes cast in the 2016 presidential election. Isolated to the Sunshine State, some two-thirds of the total number of voters who cast a ballot four years ago have already voted.

 — Next step: Longtime GOP political consultant and Mac Stipanovich hasn’t shied away from criticizing Trump. Now he’s taken the next step: cutting an ad for the Joe Biden–Kamala Harris campaign. He doesn’t mince words: “This presidential election is the most important in my lifetime because I believe Donald Trump is an existential threat to American democracy.”

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

🥳 — Hats off to these fine reporters: The Washington Post named 12 Florida political reporters to follow. Congrats to Lawrence Mower, Steve Contorno and Kirby Wilson of the Tampa Bay Times; Mary Ellen Klas, Ana Ceballos and David Smiley of the Miami Herald; Skyler Swisher of the Sun-Sentinel; Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel; Gary Fineout, Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo of Politico; and Dave Elias of NBC 2 Fort Myers.

🎙️ — Caputo has blocked me (again) on Twitter, so I miss out on some of his off-the-cuff musings. Fortunately, former Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam Smith taped this podcast with Marc, and now I can get my fix of him.

 — From celebration to isolation: It’s “highly likely” that a spike in COVID-19 cases in California is attributed to watch parties and a victory celebration held for the Los Angeles Lakers’ NBA final. What’s the big deal here? Well, what do you think Rays fans are doing this week in Tampa Bay as the region hopes for another major sports championship?

⚠️ — Want to dump America? Not so fast: While some joke about leaving the U.S. depending on the outcome of the presidential election, others are facing genuine challenges trying to renounce U.S. citizenship. The Washington Post documented dozens of cases where individuals simply couldn’t shed their American citizenship. So before you book that escape, heed the heads up.

 — Workation: Tired of working from home while the kids are getting antsy with virtual school a few feet away? Marriott hotels have got your back. More than 2,000 hotels in the chain offer a new incentive aimed at remote workers that would allow them to check-in at 6 a.m. and stay as late as 6 p.m. the next day — two full days of kid-free remote-working bliss. The promotion might be a sanity godsend for work-from-homers, but it’s also a chance for hotels to recapture lost business. Room service all around!

🥪 — Got charcuterie? You know I am reading the Bloomberg report that demand for Italian deli meats (I’m looking at you salivating, prosciutto) is surging. And why the hell not? When fine dining suddenly becomes a masked affair, if at all, what better way to satiate the urge for the finer things in life than to lay out a fancy tray of salty meats and mouthwatering cheeses? Don’t forget to pass the prosecco, please.

📖 — The current edition of INFLUENCE Magazine is now at the printers. A reminder that you must have a paid subscription to receive a physical copy. Sign up for a subscription at INFLUENCEMagazineFlorida.com.

—@KevinCate: If @FlaDems vote, we win. There are more of us than them & @JoeBiden is going to win NPAs. It’s really that simple.

—@LangstonITaylor: I’m busy with election stuff, so this is kind of a just-trust-me tweet: A lot of the simple ways to measure the coronavirus spread in Florida are showing it’s been getting worse lately, and you’d have to reach to think otherwise. Be careful.

—@JebBush: Thank you, @FLCaseyDeSantis, for your work to provide devices to students in foster care and to help close the #digitaldivide for students across the Sunshine State

Tweet, tweet:

CNN Poll of Polls: As of Tuesday, the CNN average has Biden remaining at 52% compared to an equally steady 42% for Trump. The CNN Poll of Polls tracks the national average in the presidential race. They include the most recent national telephone surveys meeting CNN’s standards for reporting and which measure the views of registered or likely voters. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.

FiveThirtyEight.com: As of Tuesday, Biden moved up to an 88 in 100 chance of winning compared to Trump, who is also remaining at a 12 in 100 shot. FiveThirtyEight also ranked individual states by the likelihood of delivering a decisive vote for the winning candidate in the Electoral College: Pennsylvania leads with 34.3%, while Wisconsin is now second at 12%. Florida is third with 11.1%. Other states include North Carolina (6.3%), Michigan (6.1%), Arizona (5.8%), Minnesota (3.9%) and Georgia (3.2%).

Joe Biden still holds the lead in battleground states. Image via AP.

PredictIt: As of Tuesday, the PredictIt trading market has Biden rising to $0.64 a share, with Trump rising a penny to $0.41.

Real Clear Politics: As of Tuesday, the RCP average of General Election top battleground state polling has Biden leading Trump 50.7% to 43.3%. The RCP General Election polling average has Biden at +7.4 points ahead.

The Economist: As of Tuesday, their model predicts that Biden is “very likely” to beat Trump in the Electoral College. The model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on Election Day. According to The Economist, Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college is around 19 in 20 (95%) versus Trump with around 1 in 20 (5%). They still give Biden a greater than 99% chance (better than 19 in 20) of winning the popular vote, with Trump at less than 1% (less than 1 in 20).

Due to postal delays, it may be safer to drop off your ballots at this point, many Democrats are saying. Image via AP.

“One week before Election Day, new Florida poll shows Joe Biden with 50% and Donald Trump at 48%” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Biden has the support of 50% of likely Florida voters in a public-opinion poll released Tuesday, 2 percentage points ahead of Trump, who has with 48%. With percentages so close, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points; the candidates effectively are tied. Other results in the poll indicate that either man could win Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Even after the long campaign, FAU found 2.5% of respondents were undecided, and 6% said they could still change their minds. The bottom line is that the race is exceedingly tight in a state in which statewide elections are often close.

“The polls could be wrong. But that may help Biden, not just Trump.” via David Wasserman for NBC News — As Election Day approaches and Trump continues to trail Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.” In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s always bound to be some degree of error, especially given the widely varying quality of the nation’s pollsters. But Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win reelection, and there’s no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor.

“As Trump warns of economic disaster, Wall Street grows giddy about Biden” via Ben White of POLITICO — Traders in recent weeks have been piling into bets that a “blue wave” election, in which Democrats also seize the Senate, will produce an economy-juicing blast of fresh fiscal stimulus of $3 trillion or more that carries the U.S. past the coronavirus crisis and into a more normal environment for markets. Far from panicking at the prospect of a Biden win, Wall Street CEOs, traders and investment managers now mostly say they would be fine with a change in the White House that reduces the Trump noise, lowers the threat of further trade wars, and ensures a continuation of the government spending they’ve seen in recent years.

“Worst place, worst time: Trump faces virus spike in Midwest” via Thomas Beaumont of The Associated Press — The coronavirus is getting worse in states that the Republican President needs the most, at the least opportune time. New infections are raging in Wisconsin and elsewhere in the upper Midwest. In Iowa, polls suggest Trump is in a tossup race with Biden after carrying the state by 9.4 percentage points four years ago. Trump’s pandemic response threatens his hold on Wisconsin, where he won by fewer than 23,000 votes in 2016, said Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin. “Approval of his handling of COVID-19 is the next-strongest predictor of vote choice,” behind voters’ party affiliation and their overall approval of Trump’s performance as President, Franklin said. “And it’s not just a fluke of a single survey.”

“Gretchen Whitmer blames Trump’s divisive rhetoric for the plot to kidnap her.” via Sydney Ember of The New York Times — Whitmer of Michigan laid the blame for the alleged kidnapping plot against her firmly at Trump’s feet on Tuesday, accusing him of “sowing division and putting leaders, especially women leaders, at risk” with his divisive rhetoric. In an op-ed published in The Atlantic, Whitmer, a Democrat in her first term, wrote that she was “not surprised” by the scheme and vowed not to “stand back and let the President, or anyone else, put my colleagues and fellow Americans in danger without holding him accountable.” The F.B.I. said earlier this month that an anti-government group had plotted to kidnap Whitmer. Whitmer wrote that learning about the plot had been “jarring.” and took particular aim at Trump’s remarks last week at a rally in Michigan.

“20 Republican ex-federal prosecutors call Trump ‘a threat to the rule of law’ and endorse Biden.” via Katie Benner of The New York Times — A group of 20 Republican former federal prosecutors endorsed Biden, calling Trump “a threat to the rule of law in our country” who uses the Justice Department “to serve his personal and political interests.” “He has politicized the Justice Department, dictating its priorities along political lines,” the signatories said in an open letter. “We do not support his reelection.” The letter, organized by Ken Wainstein, is the latest example of prominent Republicans supporting Biden. Others include former Governors, Congress members and national security officials.

“Musicians beg Trump to stop playing their music” via The Associated Press — From the beloved opening lines of Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” to the rousing, children’s choir conclusion of the Rolling Stones’ “You Can’t Always Get What You Want,” Trump’s campaign rallies have been filled with classic songs whose authors and their heirs loudly reject him and his politics. It’s become a sub-cycle in the endless campaign cycle. The Trump campaign can hardly play a song without the artist denouncing its use and sending a cease-and-desist letter. Neil Young, John Fogerty, Phil Collins, Panic! At The Disco and the estates of Leonard Cohen, Tom Petty and Prince are just a few of those who have objected.

“Trump campaign denies report claiming it canceled $5.5M worth of Florida advertising” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Trump’s presidential campaign pushed back on a report it had canceled millions worth of Florida ads. Confusion arose after Bloomberg News reported the Republican campaign nixed $5.5 million in ads scheduled to run in the Sunshine State before Election Day. That seemed to be based on a report from Advertising Analytics showing Trump redirecting budget to four states he flipped red in 2016, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. But Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the Trump campaign, called the report “horribly wrong” and said it “should never have been written.” In truth, the campaign still has a major investment in Florida.

“Trump’s weakness with older voters could cost him Florida — and the White House” via S.V. Date of Huffington Post — With its 29 electoral votes, Florida has more than Michigan and Wisconsin combined, and would almost certainly guarantee a Trump loss should Democrat Biden manage to win the state. “If you bring Florida home, this thing’s over,” former President Barack Obama said during a weekend visit to the Miami Springs campaign office of his Vice President. Bringing Florida home for Biden doesn’t even require winning those older voters who make up fully half of the state’s likely electorate. It just means cutting into Trump’s enormous margins with that group four years ago, a phenomenon that appears to be happening already.

“Trump won’t be at Mar-a-Lago bound for Republican fundraiser” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Trump won’t be on hand Thursday evening when Republicans gather for a fundraising dinner at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach. Trump is expected to be in Florida part of the day Thursday, and some of his supporters hoped that meant he’d be with them during the first installment of an unusual, two-night version of the Palm Beach County Republican Party’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner. It’s been held for years at Mar-a-Lago’s main ballroom before Trump was a presidential candidate. It’s being split into two nights this year so that each night can be smaller during the coronavirus pandemic. A total of 700 people will be divided between the two nights. Tickets are sold out.

“Ivanka Trump stops at Pitbull’s Little Havana charter school ahead of Miami rally” via Karina Eldwood and Samantha J. Gross of the Miami Herald — With a week to go until Election Day, Trump’s children and surrogates are making a final swing through Florida, where latest polling shows a quintessentially Floridian razor-thin margin between Trump and his challenger, Biden. Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and senior adviser, made a surprise stop Tuesday at a charter school in Little Havana, the heart of Miami’s Cuban exile community. The First Daughter was set to appear at the Bayfront Park Amphitheater in downtown Miami later in the day. Ivanka Trump was fresh off a daytime appearance in Sarasota earlier Tuesday. Last week, she had another Florida double feature, with appearances in Fort Myers and Naples.

“It’s complicated: Winning Florida’s crucial Latino vote means talking to people from many lands” via Brittny Mejia of the Los Angeles Times — For many, Florida is the beating heart of the nation’s largely right-leaning Cuban community; the state also has a large population of Puerto Ricans, who tend to vote Democratic. But there is a growing share of the Latino electorate: Those whose roots aren’t planted in either the Caribbean or the U.S. territory. If there is a true melting pot of Latinos in the U.S., it would be Florida, which has significant numbers of people from across Latin America. According to the Pew Research Center, Latinos other than Cuban and Puerto Rican make up 44% of the Hispanic electorate.

“How pro-Trump disinformation is swaying a new generation of Cuban-American voters” via Stephania Taladrid of The New Yorker — According to Florida International University’s Cuba Poll, recent émigrés were the most likely to support Obama in 2012 and the least likely to support Trump in 2016. But newer polling numbers tell a dramatically different story. In less than four years, members of the post-1995 generation became more than forty points likelier to identify as Republican. During this presidential election in Florida, pro-Trump disinformation has become the norm. If there’s a notion that Trump has been sure to exploit in Florida, it’s that a Biden presidency would bring anarchy to the country and lead it down a path to Communism. Although polls show that Biden has a slight edge over Trump in Florida, the President leads overwhelmingly with Cuban-American voters.

“As Florida eclipses 2016 early vote totals, Democratic turnout lags in Miami-Dade” via Aaron Leibowitz of the Miami Herald — On Tuesday, the state blew past the 2016 total of about 6.6 million votes cast before Election Day, thanks in large part to a record 3.9 million mail ballots processed so far. A total of almost 6.8 million ballots had been cast in Florida by late Tuesday. But while statewide turnout has been impressive, turnout in Miami-Dade County — and among Democrats in particular — has been lagging. Entering Tuesday, about 46% of all registered voters in Florida had cast ballots, including 42% of Democrats, 37% of Republicans and 20% of independents, according to the U.S. Elections Project. In Miami-Dade, the turnout was less than 46% of registered voters Tuesday. That includes 52% of Republicans, 47% of Democrats and 37% of independents.

“Barack Obama visits Orlando as Democrats push to improve early turnout among Puerto Ricans” via Bianca Padró Ocasio and David Smiley of the Miami Herald — To shift turnout in the right direction in Central Florida, the Biden campaign on Tuesday is sending Obama to Orlando, the center of a community of hundreds of thousands of Puerto Rican voters. Democrats have hoped the influx of left-leaning Latinos will help change the political dynamic along Interstate 4, a battleground region that Trump won decisively four years ago. Polls show that many Puerto Ricans registered to vote in Florida strongly dislike Trump following his handling of 2017’s Hurricane Maria. Turnout by Democrats in the two Central Florida counties with the highest number of voting Puerto Ricans is lagging behind the Democratic Party’s state averages in early and mail ballot turnout by about 2.5 percentage points.

“‘The soul of our nation is at stake’: Loranne Ausley, colleagues urge women to support Biden” via Jason Delgado of Florida Politics — A female trio of Democratic leaders gathered in Tallahassee on Tuesday to urge women to vote early for Biden. Speaking from outside the Leon County Courthouse, former Rep. Marjorie Turnbull, Rep. Ausley and HD 9 candidate Allison Tant warned that the 2020 Presidential Election would have dramatic consequences for women. They encouraged women to defend each other, their families and the country at the polls. “The soul of our nation is at stake,” Ausley said, garnering head nods from her colleagues. Turnbull, who represented Florida’s 9th District from 1994 until 2000, described Biden as a politician who has demonstrated care for women and families throughout his career.

“Homemade Trump campaign sign violates Collier County code, draws complaints from neighbors” via David Dorsey of the Naples Daily News — A Naples man who put up an unofficial Trump-Mike Pence presidential campaign sign with the language of violence on it said he meant no harm. Wilton Wood placed the sign off Lakewood Boulevard in southeast Naples. He said he’s concerned over Democrats ruining the American government with socialism that will transform into Marxism and communism. Democratic presidential candidate Biden’s policies are in line with capitalism, not communism, according to joebiden.com and political scientists. “You can’t put up all this information on a billboard,” Wood said. “It’s a shock and awe kind of statement. But it makes you think, wait a minute.”

An unofficial Donald Trump sign espouses the language of violence and possibly violates Collier County codes. Image via Naples Daily News.

“Mike Bloomberg funds last-minute advertising blitz for Biden in Texas and Ohio” via Alexander Burns of The New York Times — Bloomberg is funding a last-minute spending blitz to bolster Biden in Texas and Ohio, directing millions toward television advertising in two red states that have shifted away from Trump in the general election. A political adviser to Bloomberg said the billionaire former mayor of New York City would use his super PAC, Independence USA, to air intensive ad campaigns in all television markets in both states. The cost of the two-state campaign is expected to total around $15 million. Bloomberg’s decision reflects just how much the electoral landscape appears to have shifted in the final few months of the presidential race.

“Desperate voters book last-minute flights to the polls: ‘Five hours of flying is more than worth it’” via Teo Armus of The Washington Post — Amid a heated, divisive campaign season, a global pandemic that has complicated normal voting procedures and a flood of mail-in ballots inundating the U.S. Postal Service, some voters are going the distance, in this case literally, to ensure their votes can be counted. “People are increasingly desperate to cast their ballots because we’re almost to the point of no return,” said Kaela Bynoe, a medical student in Baltimore. “No matter what a person’s political opinion is, I feel like we can all feel that creeping instability.”

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Biden lays out closing argument in nationwide ad — The Biden campaign launched a pair of nationwide ads underscoring the key themes of the former Vice President’s campaign and showcasing to Americans “his unwavering commitment to restoring the soul of the nation and unifying the country.” In two separate minute-long spots, Jill and Joe Biden speak directly to viewers and make a closing argument to voters about the stakes of the election and Biden will rise to the moment if elected President. Biden’s ad says the election “presents an opportunity to put the darkness of the past four years behind us.” Jill Biden’s ad recounts how the couple met and how Joe Biden’s faith guided him throughout his life and career.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

and

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Biden ad series issues closing argument, call to action to Black community — Biden’s campaign released a series of ads Tuesday laying out its final message and making calls to action the Black community. One of the ads features Biden speaking directly with voters about his plan to ensure Black Lives Matter is a policy mandate and to ensure Black Americans “get a fair shake at economic opportunity, health care, criminal justice, education and housing.” Another features VP nominee Harris explaining what can change when you vote. And a third features a soaring vision of the power of the Black vote set to Andra Day‘s music. The ads are a part of a nationwide closing investment and mobilization message to the Black community.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

New ad shows voters who are ‘Unidos con Biden’ — The Biden campaign released a new ad showing voters who are “United with Biden,” or “Unidos con Biden.” The ad features a mix of English- and Spanish-speaking Latino voters explaining why they cast their ballot for the Democratic nominee with Gaby Moreno’s hit song Fronteras playing in the background. The campaign airs the ad on TV and digital platforms ad in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Ad highlights Latino support for Biden — A new Biden campaign ad titled “Yo, Biden,” or “Me, Biden,” features Latino voters expounding on the various reasons they chose to support Biden in the presidential race, including the economy, climate change, health care for all and more. The ad comes in versions geared toward Latino voters in the East and West. The two flavors of “Yo, Biden” will air in Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The ad will also run on digital in Michigan, Colorado and Texas.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

Biden will ‘be a human’ in the White House — The Biden campaign is pushing a new ad, “Ser Humano,” claiming the former VP will bring humanity and compassion back to the White House. “Ser humano,” the ad narrator says. “Not only a human being, but to be one. It means caring for all and leading with empathy no matter the challenges.” The ad goes on to say: “Ser humano can mean different things, but for a President, to be one can never be optional.” The bilingual digital ad airing in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Texas and Wisconsin.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

“A former pro wrestling star touts Biden’s ‘toughness’ in a new ad.” via Nick Corasaniti of The New York Times — There are few characteristics more important to Trump than maintaining an appearance of toughness. The Biden campaign has enlisted the help of Dave Bautista, the 6-foot-6 former professional wrestler turned Hollywood actor, to cut into that narrative in a new ad. The ad makes no verifiable claims. Professional wrestling is a popular form of entertainment among white men, a constituency among whom Biden consistently trails Trump, and a testimonial from one of World Wrestling Entertainment’s legends is clearly aimed at that audience.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

“Demi Lovato, the Lincoln Project Partner for election ad campaign” via Claire Shaffer of Rolling Stone — Lovato has partnered with the Lincoln Project on a political ad campaign with her song “Commander in Chief” ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The ad builds upon a music video for the song, above, created by the Lincoln Project and released earlier this month, alongside Lovato’s original “Commander in Chief” video. The campaign video highlights some of the most pressing issues that will affect this election, including COVID-19, immigration, racial injustice, and climate change. “We are grateful to Demi Lovato and her entire team for giving the Lincoln Project the opportunity to do something so dynamic and creatively out-of-the-box,” the Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson said.

“Florida Democrats expand push to fix flawed mail-in ballots” via Matt Dixon of POLITICO — Florida Democrats have launched an offensive to track and quickly fix rejected vote-by-mail ballots as they work to seize every last vote in the swing state a week ahead of Election Day. The raw number of rejected ballots that Democrats can hope to cure is small, maybe in the thousands, but in a state where races are decided on the thinnest of margins, they could be enough to sway the outcome. “The curing process could play a huge role in how this whole thing shakes out,” said incoming House Democratic Leader Evan Jenne, who is helping coordinate his Party’s state house races. “We will leave no stone unturned, and these types of things are a really important part of that strategy.”

“County early voting sites to close early Wednesday, open late Thursday for Tropical Storm Zeta” via Pensacola News Journal — Polls in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties will close early Wednesday as Tropical Storm Zeta, which is forecast to regain hurricane strength, approaches Northwest Florida. Escambia County Supervisor of Elections David Stafford told the News Journal early voting sites will close at 3 p.m. Wednesday and won’t reopen until 11 a.m. Thursday. Santa Rosa County Supervisor of Elections Tappie Villane said their voting sites would have identical hours: 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. Wednesday and 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Thursday, reopening for regular hours on Friday. Early Voting sites have been on a 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. schedule.

Stephanie Murphy makes closing pitch in final ad — Democratic U.S. Rep. Murphy released her final ad of the 2020 campaign. The 60-second video, titled “Straight Up Stephanie,” serves as a closing argument for her reelection one week out from Election Day. The spot highlights Murphy’s personal story and background and calls on the nation to put aside politics so that America can “rise once again.” The ad will run across multiple digital platforms.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

___

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

“New ad takes aim at Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s voting record as incumbent counters with closing argument” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — A new ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund is echoing a misleading claim about Democratic Rep. Mucarsel-Powell‘s voting record as the race for Florida’s 26th Congressional District nears its end. The contest has seen misleading allegations from both sides, including from Mucarsel-Powell and her Democratic allies. The claims could well turn the tide in a race expected to be one of Florida’s closest contests this cycle. The ad from the CLF, a super PAC aimed at electing Republicans to the U.S. House, cites data trying to tie Mucarsel-Powell to the party’s left-wing. But additional analysis shows the numbers they use actually undermine their argument.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

New ad buys

— CD 4: Republican U.S. Rep. John Rutherford spent $147K on broadcast ads running through Election Day in the Jacksonville market. He has now spent $842K on ads this cycle. Democratic challenger Donna Deegan has spent $399K.

— CD 7: Republican nominee Leo Valentin made a $16K broadcast buy and a $39K cable buy, both running through Election Day. He has now spent $259K on ads. Democratic U.S. Rep. Murphy has spent $98K.

— CD 9: Democratic U.S. Rep. Darren Soto made a $10K cable buy running through Nov. 2. He has spent $35K on ads so far this cycle.

— CD 15: Democrat Alan Cohn placed $131K on broadcast and $4K on cable in the Tampa market. Both flights run through Election Day. This brings his total for the election to $1.17M. Republican Scott Franklin placed a $51K buy for broadcast ads running through Oct. 27. This brings his total for the election to $613K.

— CD 16: Republican U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan spent another $112K on cable ads running through Nov. 3. This brings his total for the election to $1.51M. Democratic challenger Margaret Good has spent $1.52 million.

— CD 26: Republican Carlos Giménez spent $53K on a cable flight running through Nov. 2. He and committees backing him have now spent $9.95M on ads. Democratic U.S. Rep. Mucarsel-Powell and aligned committees have spent $13.2 million on ads.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

“Poll: Ausley holds advantage over Marva Preston” via Jason Delgado of Florida Politics — A new St. Pete Polls survey suggests Democratic Rep. Ausley holds a 51%-44% lead over Republican Preston in the race for SD 3. Notably, 5% described themselves as “undecided” in the contest. The race’s narrow margins underscore what has become one of the most contentious and expensive races in the state. For months, the parties have pummeled voters with negative television ads, mail flyers and radio commercials. Historically, SD3 has long stood as a Democratic stronghold, and Ausley was considered a natural successor to term-limited Sen. Bill Montford. However, the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent thousands to try to steal the district.

Loranne Ausley is taking a significant lead over Marva Preston.

“Independent candidate in Jason Brodeur-Patricia Sigman race backed by ads linked to GOP consultant” via Annie Martin of the Orlando Sentinel — A secretive group behind ads for a little-known independent candidate in the fiercely competitive state Senate race that pits Republican Brodeur against Democrat Sigman has ties to a GOP consultant in Tallahassee. Recent mailers tout Jestine Iannotti, a third candidate in the District 9 race who has not sat for interviews and issued a news release requesting ‘privacy’ during her campaign. The ads make progressive promises with wording about climate change and holding police accountable.

>>>The Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee put $170K into broadcast ads backing Sigman. They run through Oct. 30 in the Orlando market. Meanwhile, the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee made a $48K broadcast buy backing Brodeur. The ads run through Election Day in the Orlando market.

“Is SD 20 in play? Danny Burgess holds razor-thin lead over Kathy Lewis” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Republican Burgess leads Democrat Lewis 45% to 44% with more than 11% of voters still undecided in what is technically a Special Election for Senate District 20, according to a St. Pete Polls survey released Tuesday. The lead, well within the poll’s margin of error, shows a tight race in a district where former Sen. Tom Lee bested Lewis by 7 points two years ago and where Trump carried the district by 8 points in 2016. Polling shows what others have also suggested — that Trump is losing ground in districts he carried four years ago and possibly bringing down-ballot candidates with him.

Marylynn Magar sending backup to GOP House candidates — Republican Rep. Magar launched a new political committee, Magar Conservatives Fund, to boost conservative candidates running in competitive state House and local races across the state. “I have been blessed over the past 8 years to work with some of the best conservatives in leading Florida,” Magar said. “We introduced significant reforms in health care, education, and corrections using the policy that government is best when limited and kept closest to the people it serves.” Alongside the launch, Magar highlighted seven candidates the committee will support: Chuck Clemons in HD 21, Elizabeth Fetterhoff in HD 26, Webster Barnaby in HD 27, Bob Cortes in HD 30, Toby Overdorf in HD 83, Dana Trabulsy in HD 84, and Tom Fabricio in HD 103.

“Dolores Guzman responds to false claims in Republican ad” via Mark Harper of The Daytona Beach News-Journal — The Republican Party of Florida ad has falsely claimed a second Democratic House candidate from Volusia County has taken a position on police funding that she has not taken. An attack on Guzman, Democratic candidate for House District 27, uses the same language and images as a similar ad against Democrat Patrick Henry, who’s running for the House District 26 seat. Both claim the candidates support “defund the police” efforts, with a voice-over claiming, “Here’s the proof.” The ad then shows an image of the names of candidates who’ve signed a pledge for Future Now Fund.

“Andrew Learned holds narrow lead in HD 59, but it may not be all good news” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Democrat Learned is leading Republican Michael Owen 44% to 42% in House District 59, according to the latest survey from St. Pete Polls. The lead is just three-tenths of a point behind incumbent Adam Hattersley’s 2018 victory in the district over Republican Joe Wicker. The poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday, found 14% of voters are still undecided. Learned’s lead is within the poll’s 5.5% margin of error, signaling a razor-thin race as Democrats seek to hold onto the East Hillsborough seat they only just flipped two years ago. Learned’s lead is also less than Biden’s in the district at 51% to 47%

“Poll: Traci Koster leads Jessica Harrington in red-leaning HD 64” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Republican Koster leads Democrat Harrington by nearly 5 points, according to the most recent survey from St. Pete Polls released Tuesday. Of the 443 likely voters surveyed, 48% are backing Koster while 43% plan to vote or have already voted for Harrington. Only 9% of voters remain undecided. Still, Harrington performs better this election than she did two years ago when she lost by 7 points to then-incumbent Jamie Grant. Koster’s lead is narrowly within the poll’s 4.7% margin of error at 4.5%. Her lead is also larger than Trump’s lead within the district, which sits at 50% to 47%.

Republican Traci Koster is leading Jessica Harrington in red-leaning HD 64.

“Florida GOP gives Chris Latvala $40K boost” via Kelly Hayes of Florida Politics — Latvala continued breaking campaign fundraising records this cycle in the most recent reporting period spanning Oct. 3 through Oct. 16, a report available just days before the November election. Latvala, who is running for reelection in Florida House District 67, faces Democratic opponent Dawn Douglas. Latvala brought in $70,100 this period, his highest haul to date. The Florida GOP helped with a $40,000 boost to the candidate’s campaign. Douglas only raised $1,609 in the same span, struggling to keep up with the incumbent’s finance game. The incumbent also dished out $110,993 in the same report, spending $86,000 on media production and placement as the General Election inches closer.

“Survey shows tight contest between Jim Bonfiglio, Mike Caruso in HD 89” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — A new survey from St. Pete Polls has Democrat Bonfiglio leading Republican Rep. Caruso 45%-44%, with the remaining batch of voters either undecided or unwilling to reveal their preference. That’s in line with an early October version, which gave Bonfiglio a 2-point lead. The results are once again well within the poll’s 5.4% margin of error, but it’s no surprise Caruso is in for a fight as he looks to secure a second term representing the district. Caruso won the open seat over Bonfiglio in 2018 by just 32 votes out of more than 78,000 cast. The survey also took a look at the presidential contest inside HD 89, finding Biden ahead of Trump 54%-43%.

“Cash dries up for Linda Thompson Gonzalez as she continues bid to flip HD 93” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — After seeing a surge in cash from late August through September, Gonzalez reported raising just over $5,600 in the newest financial reports filed with the Division of Elections. Those reports cover financial activity from Oct. 3-16. For comparison, her opponent, Republican Rep. Chip LaMarca, collected more than $78,000 during that same span through his campaign account alone. LaMarca’s political committee Citizens Helping Improve Policy, added another $125,000 as well. But the PC also shipped out $175,000 to the Republican Party of Florida. It’s not guaranteed that money will come back to help his campaign.

Lenny Curry extends the mask mandate in Duval County. Image via Jacksonville Daily Record.

“Halloween scare: COVID infections rise in Miami as nightclubs prepare to party” via Douglas Hanks and Ben Conarck of the Miami Herald — Hospital beds began filling up with more COVID-19 cases this week as ambulances picked up more and more people suspected of having the coronavirus. Unlike the last two times this happened, Miami-Dade’s government has far fewer options to control the spread. A countywide $100 fine for not wearing masks was rendered toothless when DeSantis barred cities and counties from collecting fines for violating emergency COVID rules. And Miami no longer enforces Miami-Dade’s midnight curfew as county lawyers fight to keep the restaurant industry viable. Mayor Giménez said medical experts are telling him to expect the next surge to peak in late November, a time frame coinciding with Thanksgiving weekend.

“‘I believe we are in a resurgence,’ county emergency manager says” via Jane Musgrave of The Palm Beach Post — Almost exactly a month after Ron DeSantis allowed all businesses in the state to reopen, color-coded benchmarks Palm Beach County uses to monitor the spread of the deadly coronavirus have gone from green to red. Six of the 13 criteria the county uses to monitor the virus are no longer in the acceptable range, the county’s emergency manager told county commissioners on Tuesday. “I believe we are in a resurgence,” said Bill Johnson, the county’s emergency manager.

“Palm Beach County vows to keep up COVID-19 contact tracing even though state funding may expire” via Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, Palm Beach County’s health director is concerned about losing one of their tools to help combat the spread of COVID-19. Palm Beach County’s state funding for contact tracing will expire on Nov. 30, Dr. Alina Alonso said during a commission meeting Tuesday. Contact tracing is when health officials speak with COVID-19 patients to find out who else may have been close to them. The tracers then reach out to those individuals, informing them of their potential exposure. The goal is to keep those potentially-exposed people from going out and spreading the virus in the community.

All the prayers — Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay tests positive for COVID-19” via Hannah Morse of The Palm Beach Post — McKinlay has tested positive for COVID-19, she announced Tuesday morning. “For months, we have been taking the best precautions possible to prevent the spread of COVID-19,” she wrote in a Twitter post. “I am proud of those efforts, but nothing is a 100% guarantee.” McKinlay, whose college-age daughter tested positive in September, said she received her test results Monday night. McKinlay is the first among the seven county Commissioners to announce a positive coronavirus test publicly. She attended Tuesday’s commission meeting by phone.

“Naples Mayor Teresa Heitmann says she has recovered from coronavirus” via Brittany Carloni of Naples Daily News — Less than a month after testing positive for coronavirus, Naples Mayor Heitmann said her health has recovered. Heitmann said she tested negative for the virus on Oct. 19, two weeks after testing positive. She returned to in-person public meetings at Naples City Hall last week. “I think I feel great because I’m just thankful that I had what I thought was a mild version,” she said in a phone interview with the Naples Daily News. Heitmann quarantined in her home in Naples beginning Oct. 1 after her daughter tested positive for coronavirus. According to the city, she initially tested negative for COVID-19 on Oct. 1, but then tested positive on Oct. 5.

Naples Mayor Teresa Heitmann announces she has now tested negative for COVID-19.

“Long-haulers: Tampa Bay residents can’t shake COVID-19 symptoms months later” via Christopher Spata of the Tampa Bay Times — Every day now, he said, is pretty much the same. Headaches, confusion, and fatigue can make a walk to the kitchen feel as draining as running a mile uphill. Unable to fly, Greg Branch and his wife left West Palm Beach and moved into a home in Tampa owned by her parents. It all started in June. Casinos reopened. Branch flew clients to Las Vegas. He had a night off and decided to do a little gambling. “Nobody was wearing a mask,” he said. “I didn’t wear one. I wasn’t taking it seriously.” His senses of taste and smell vanished a week later, and he had a mild cough. He tested positive for COVID-19. But that was as bad as it got in the first couple of weeks.

“Orlando to let downtown Halloween revelers take beer outside as officials urge caution over virus” via Stephen Hudak and Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — Orange County officials are hoping Halloween festivities won’t lead to a local resurgence of COVID-19, as nationwide, record new infections have been announced in recent days. Decisions on Trick-or-Treating will be left up to parents, and officials encourage neighborhoods to avoid large gatherings and for parents to make sure children are wearing masks, washing hands, and keeping a distance from others if they go out. In Orlando, where thousands of revelers historically flood downtown bars, Mayor Buddy Dyer said the city would waive open-container rules in some areas in hopes of allowing crowds more space to spread out.

“Florida Gators return to football after COVID-19 outbreak” via Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times — The Florida Gators’ two-week shutdown ended Monday when the team returned to the football facilities for the first time since a coronavirus spike infected more than two dozen players and at least three coaches. “I think everybody’s really excited, ready to get back after it, ready to get back to football,” said coach Dan Mullen, who was back in the office after spending the last two weeks isolating at home as one of the team’s confirmed COVID-19 cases. Mullen didn’t get into some of the specifics of UF’s outbreak. He declined to say whether anyone was hospitalized, although he did say UF hasn’t had “a whole lot of major issues” from infections.

“East-West Shrine Bowl canceled because of coronavirus pandemic” via Matt Baker for the Tampa Bay Times — The East-West Shrine Bowl will not be played this January because of the coronavirus pandemic, event organizers announced Tuesday. The annual college football All-Star Game and scouting showcase has been a fixture at Tropicana Field and was set to be played on Jan. 23. “It’s terribly disappointing to have to cancel this year’s game, but there are so many issues involved with bringing in approximately 130 players and 25 NFL coaches from every corner of the United States and Canada,” the game’s executive director, Bob Roller, said in a statement. The game’s history dates back to 1925, and it benefits Shriners Hospitals for Children.

Hospitalizations for COVID-19 is on the rise in much of the U.S. Image via Bloomberg.

“Some college towns that were virus hot spots are cooling down.” via Amelia Nierenberg of The New York Times — When college students returned to campus this fall, jamming sidewalks and bars in the surrounding communities, many college towns emerged as major coronavirus hot spots. In many college towns, that’s still true: Washtenaw County, home to the University of Michigan, saw its largest number of confirmed cases of the pandemic this month, despite a stay-at-home order for undergraduates that was meant to squash outbreaks. In Wisconsin, new case counts remain stubbornly high, especially around colleges, with the virus now spreading to vulnerable populations.

“Historic vaccine race meets via harsh reality” via Sarah Owermohle of POLITICO — Pfizer’s admission that it still doesn’t know whether its coronavirus vaccine works is a dose of reality for the historic global vaccine race. The company’s failure to meet its self-imposed goal — having proof of efficacy in October — is the latest reminder that vaccine development is a long, complicated process that doesn’t stick to political deadlines. A COVID-19 vaccine could still be months away. All [government and drugmaker] timelines assume that we have a vaccine that is actually shown to work and is safe before the end of the year,” says Peter Hotez, a virologist and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. “But, we still have no guarantee.”

“All-in U.S. push for vaccine raises risk virus will linger” via Naomi Kresge, James Paton, and John Lauerman of Bloomberg — The U.S. strategy to rely on vaccines and treatments, rather than emphasizing social distancing, masks and testing nationwide, threatens to delay the return to normal life for Americans. While the U.S. has committed more than $10 billion to develop new shots to fight COVID-19, about half of Americans say they are wary of taking them, according to a Gallup poll reported this month. Meanwhile, any shortfalls in the vaccine program could mean the country will struggle with the virus well into 2023, according to the London-based firm Airfinity Ltd. At the same time, cases are climbing as the weather cools, and more activity moves indoors.

“Most Americans have been wearing masks since spring, the C.D.C. says.” via Donald G. McNeil Jr. — Despite Trump’s very public resistance to mask-wearing for much of this year, a newly released survey from the CDC shows that a vast majority of Americans of all ages have been wearing face coverings since April. The data, released in the agency’s weekly Morbidity and Mortality Report, is roughly in line with other polls showing that most Americans report wearing masks, at least when they are inside stores. For example, in August, Pew Research reported that 85% of 13,200 adults surveyed said they wore masks in stores, up from 65% in June.

“The NFL COVID-19 plan isn’t working. Fix it to protect players, profits and US society.” via Dr. Joshua Barocas of USA Today — The NFL season is on the brink of collapse. So far, there have been more than 100 positive coronavirus cases among players and personnel. To date, two teams have experienced outbreaks, and others have had isolated cases. Aside from routine testing and some basic risk mitigation interventions the league has done little to ensure a safe work environment or promote positive public health messaging. In fact, it is promoting a harmful and counterproductive narrative that infections are the result of players misbehaving. The NFL could, however, ensure a successful season, protect players and staff, provide resources to vulnerable communities, and help change the narrative around coronavirus.

Tennessee Titans outside linebackers coach Shane Bowen, left, and head coach Mike Vrabel watch players during NFL football training camp in Nashville. Image via AP.

“With proper measures, flying can be safer than eating at a restaurant during the pandemic, study says” via Lori Arantani of The Washington Post — The risk of catching the coronavirus on an airplane can be significantly reduced if travelers wash their hands frequently, wear masks at all times, and if airlines clean and sanitize planes thoroughly and ensure there is a constant flow of air throughout the cabin, even when the plane is parked. Using these and other measures as part of a layered approach could push the risk of catching the virus on a plane below that of other activities, including grocery shopping and eating at a restaurant, researchers concluded. “Though a formidable adversary, SARS-CoV-2 need not overwhelm society’s capacity to adapt and progress,” the report said.

“‘Adapted overnight’: How travel influencers’ worlds were changed by COVID-19 pandemic” via Morgan Hines of USA Today — Traveling during a pandemic hasn’t been easy for anyone. But for influencers, whose livelihoods depend on engaging an audience and attracting and keeping sponsorships and partnerships, it goes beyond wanderlust. Just as millions of other workers have learned to adapt to working from home while teaching their kids, influencers have also been navigating a new normal. As part of the new normal, influencers have had to adapt to constantly changing restrictions and requirements and choose destinations accordingly. He’s visiting smaller towns and also prioritizing trips that allow him to get outdoors.

“Florida receives exclusive federal grant for opioid recovery” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics — Florida is receiving a $5 million federal grant for a program to help recovering opioid addicts find employment and stay employed as they fight their dependence. The Sunshine State is one of a handful of states to receive that grant from the Department of Labor, Ron DeSantis said Tuesday. Florida Department of Economic Opportunity’s (DEO) “Support to Communities” workforce development pilot program will connect individuals recovering from addiction with employment and support services. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, overdoses in the last six months are up 62% compared to that period the year prior.

The Sunshine State is one of a handful of states to receive a $5 million grant from the Department of Labor, Ron DeSantis said.

“R.J. Reynolds ask justices to resolve payment fight” via Jim Saunders of News Service of Florida — In a dispute stemming from a landmark legal settlement between Florida and cigarette makers, R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. is asking the state Supreme Court to take up a case about whether the company owes more than $100 million after selling off some of its brands. Attorneys for R.J. Reynolds late Monday filed a 16-page brief asking the Supreme Court to hear the case after the 4th District Court of Appeal ruled that the company was required to make the payments under the 1997 settlement, which has involved cigarette makers paying hundreds of millions of dollars a year to the state because of smoking-related health costs. In exchange for the payments, the companies received liability protection.

Appointed — Edward “Tee” Baur to the Florida Gulf Coast University Board of Trustees.

Former Pennsylvania candidate for Governor Paul Mango is now at the center of Donald Trump’s vaccine push.

Kristen Meyer agreed to testify for the prosecution against her husband, Alejandro Aleman. He is charged with first-degree murder in the death of Tayla Aleman, and faces the death penalty if convicted. Image via Palm Beach Post.

“No wrist slaps for illegally cutting down oak trees in Tampa” via the Tampa Bay Times editorial board — Tampa has long prided itself on preserving its lush oak canopy. So when the trees, along with much of the other vegetation, got hacked down on the Isles at Old Tampa Bay property, people noticed. Thankfully, so has the city, which is investigating what happened. The 162-acre property on S West Shore Boulevard sat largely idle for years until recently, when the developers moved forward with their plan for about 350 residential units, including 130 luxury townhomes and 67 large “estate lots.” City officials have now stopped work on the site, citing violations involving wetlands protections and buffers, failure to obtain permits for site clearing, and removal of grand oaks and other protected trees.

“Biden’s temperament is moderate. His agenda is transformative.” via Dana Milbank of The Washington Post — Biden, on a pilgrimage Tuesday to the place where Franklin Delano Roosevelt died, promised a new birth of the New Deal. The former Vice President took the fight to Georgia to the 32nd president’s “Little White House” in Warm Springs, where Biden symbolically rekindled the flame that died there on April 12, 1945. “When news of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s death went out on the wires, an editor in Chicago turned to one of his colleagues and said, ‘Clear the decks for action,’” Biden told the crowd at Roosevelt’s convalescent retreat. “Well, I say to you today, if you give me the honor of serving as your President, clear the decks for action, for we will act!”

“Public shouldn’t have to fight to get COVID-19 information” via the Orlando Sentinel editorial board — Newspapers should not have to involve attorneys to get their hands on basic public health information. But sure enough, that’s what the Orlando Sentinel was forced to do to get a copy of a weekly status report the White House Coronavirus Task Force sends to each of the state’s Governors. DeSantis’ office should have been posting these reports every single week for the whole state to see. Instead, it’s been keeping them secret. When a Sentinel reporter found out about their existence, the DeSantis administration switched from secrecy to obstruction. Bureaucrats told reporter Naseem Miller that the document would have to get in line behind other public records requests and then undergo a legal review.

Also, on today’s Sunrise:

— Florida’s death toll has now reached 16,709. Our first fatalities happened on March 6, averaging 71 deaths since then. Every. Single. Day. But the Governor decided it was more important to use his bully pulpit to talk about opioid abuse.

— One person not shying away from the COVID crisis is Obama.

— The former President spoke at a drive-up rally in Orlando, his second visit to Florida in just four days to campaign for Biden.

— Early voting continues in Florida, but voting rights groups say there are problems — especially in Duval County, where the local canvassing board prohibits cameras and limiting attendance when they check the mail-in ballots.

— Six and a half million Floridians have already voted by mail or cast ballots at one of the early voting sites. But there are problems with more than 20,000 mail-in ballots, which may not be counted.

— And finally, the latest on Florida Man, a firefighter infected with COVID-19 who violated quarantine because he was bored.

To listen, click on the image below:

Co-owner of Terror Town, James Gregory, holds a lantern as he wears a black plague mask while scaring visitors in Williamsburg, Ohio. Image via AP.

“October has been a hot mess. But Halloween will be pretty chill.” via Jamal Thalji of the Tampa Bay Times — There’s going to be a brief burst of cool weather at the end of the week that will make for a pleasant Halloween. But everything else about the last week of October is kind of a hot mess. First, there’s Tropical Storm Zeta, which was expected to power back up into a hurricane late Tuesday or early Wednesday after hitting the Yucatán Peninsula. But Zeta shouldn’t affect Florida much. That area of high pressure keeps Florida hot and humid but relatively safe from the storm by pushing it away from the Sunshine State. Zeta appeared to be aiming at New Orleans, according to the National Hurricane Center’s Tuesday afternoon advisory. The Panhandle remains just out of the cone of uncertainty.

“Jack-o’-lantern found on the head of Andrew Jackson statue in downtown Jacksonville” via Action News Jax — Someone appeared to be getting in the Halloween spirit in downtown Jacksonville on Monday, as a jack-o’-lantern was found on the head of the statue of President Jackson. A viewer shared a photo of the “costume.” The statue was also dressed up with a cape. The statue was vandalized twice during the summer, once in June and once in July. The statue sits at the end of Laura Street near Independent Drive, directly in front of the former Jacksonville Landing.

“Man’s Halloween décor so gruesome cops are called several times” via Tiffini Theisen of the Orlando Sentinel — Death-themed Halloween décor, think skeletons, zombies and tombstones, is tame enough for schools and theme parks. Still, one man’s yard display is so horrifying that passersby have called police several times. Steven Novak, an artist in Dallas, has festooned the front of his modest home with figures that appear to be badly mutilated murder victims, the Dallas Observer reports. One “victim” has been speared in the back with a chain saw. Another corpse slumps on the roof with a knife to the head. Dismembered body parts sit in a jumble in a wheelbarrow. A duct-taped garbage bag holds the shape of another body.