The Morning Dispatch: The State of Play for College Football

Plus, are new COVID cases really dropping?

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Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • The United States confirmed 52,754 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday, with 8 percent of the 657,562 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 1,406 deaths were attributed to the virus on Wednesday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 165,934. *Note: North Carolina withdrew 220,000 test results due to a reporting error, which explains the discrepancy between cumulative and new tests today.

  • FiveThirtyEight is out with its 2020 election model, which finds Joe Biden has a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Donald Trump’s 29 percent chance.
  • Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday that Democrats and the Trump administration remain “miles apart” on the next round of economic aid in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
  • The Biden campaign raised a whopping $26 million in the 24 hours after announcing Sen. Kamala Harris would be joining the ticket. Harris appeared with Biden in Delaware yesterday for the first time as his running mate, leaning into her past as a prosecutor, reminiscing on her friendship with Biden’s late son Beau, and previewing the attacks she’ll bring to President Trump and Vice President Pence.
  • Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward has a second Trump administration book due out next month, this one called “Rage” and featuring several interviews with Trump himself. CNN reports that “Woodward conducted more than a dozen interviews with Trump for ‘Rage’ at the White House, Mar-a-Lago and over the phone.”

College Football Hangs in the Balance

The Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big East college athletic conferences officially announced this week they were joining smaller conferences—the Ivy League, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference—in postponing all fall sports until spring 2021 at the earliest.

“As time progressed and after hours of discussion with our Big Ten Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Big Ten Sports Medicine Committee,” Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren said in a statement, “it became abundantly clear that there was too much uncertainty regarding potential medical risks to allow our student-athletes to compete this fall.”

The other three Power 5 conferences—the Big 12, SEC, and ACC, mostly located in the South and Sun Belt—reiterated this week they plan to forge ahead with their football seasons, albeit with modified schedules.

Some Flashes of Good COVID News?

Is America past the worst of its second COVID wave? It’s not the sort of thing you want to just blurt out—knock on wood, and all that—but we are starting to see some encouraging signs in the numbers.

After shooting up like a rocket between mid-June and mid-July, new daily cases of the virus have started to dip again over the last two weeks. Daily deaths, a trailing indicator, have yet to follow suit—more than 1,000 Americans per day are still dying from the disease. But while that number is tragic, it’s several times less severe than the daily death totals we were seeing during the virus’ first surge in mid-April—when new cases per day at their worst were barely half what they’ve been in recent weeks.

Why are cases seemingly dropping? One reason may be because testing itself has dipped a bit since August. But while that isn’t ideal, it doesn’t account for the full dip either—the test positivity rate has continued to inch down, too, suggesting that a slight ebb in tests hasn’t hurt our ability to see the state of the virus today.

Worth Your Time

  • Just hours after Marjorie Taylor Greene—the QAnon adherent with a history of bigoted comments—won her primary in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, President Trump tossed his full support behind her, calling her a “future Republican Star” and a “real WINNER!” Melanie Zanona, Ally Mutnick, and John Bresnahan have some great reporting at Politico on the headaches Greene is already causing Republican officeholders—and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in particular. A source close to McCarthy told Politico that he would welcome Greene into the GOP conference if she wins in November, something that appears likely given the strong GOP makeup of her district. “Kevin McCarthy puffed his chest out about stripping Steve King of his committee assignments, then sat on the sidelines and let another Steve King walk away with this race in GA14,” said one GOP source. “It’s political malpractice and Republicans will be answering for her for years to come.”
  • FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wrote a piece—“It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out”—explaining how his election model works, and it’s a really useful guide to polling, probability, and campaign fundamentals. “Biden is in a reasonably strong position: Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in,” Silver writes. “His chances will improve in our model if he maintains his current lead. But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that.”
  • It’s certainly true that today’s cultural climate has made it all too easy to denigrate history for its failures and take progress for granted. “The idea of the past as nothing but a nightmare, specifically one of injustice, is probably the prevailing historiographical trope of our time,” writes Theodore Dalrymple in Law & Liberty this week. He advocates for a “historiography that is capable of recognising defects and even horrors in a tradition, but also strengths and glories, such that the tradition can survive without remaining obdurately stuck in its worst grooves.”

Presented Without Comment

josh ‘Letterman’ (oldfriend99) @oldfriend99

No it was something else

Toeing the Company Line

  • Joe Biden tapped Kamala Harris as his running mate on Tuesday, and The Dispatch Podcast gang (with Declan filling in for Jonah this week) has thoughts. Tune in for a lively discussion on what Biden’s VP pick means for the future of the Democratic Party, a deep dive into foreign election meddling, and a much-needed update on the status of professional sports during the pandemic.
  • Speaking of foreign election meddling, Thomas Joscelyn’s latest Vital Interests newsletter (🔒) asks and answers the question: How effective is Russia’s disinformation? Spoiler: Not as effective as you might think.
  • Social conservatives are sounding the alarm over a new rap song called “WAP” by Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion over its explicit language and sexual innuendo. It reminds David of another rap song from years ago that created a stir, 2 Live Crew’s “Me So Horny.” In yesterday’s French Press (🔒), he looks back on how efforts to combat the song—the song was banned in some places, and the group was arrested for performing it live—failed, and the risks inherent when “political power was brought to bear in the attempt to rescue the culture.”

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Nate Hochman (@njhochman), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).