The Morning Dispatch: What Trump’s Polling Numbers Mean for the Senate

Plus, the new head of the U.S. Agency for Global Media faces bipartisan rebuke.

Happy Thursday! And a reminder: This is the version of TMD available to non-paying readers. We’re happy you’ve made The Dispatch part of your morning routine, and we hope you’re enjoying The Morning Dispatch and the rest of our free editorial offerings. If you do, we hope you’ll consider joining us as a paying member. In addition to the full version of TMD each day, you’ll get extra editions of French Press, the G-FileVital Interests, and our other paid products. And members can engage with the authors and with one another in the discussion threads at the end of each of our articles and newsletters. If this appeals to you, we hope you’ll please join now.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • As of Wednesday night, 2,685,806 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the United States (an increase of 51,374 from yesterday) and 128,061 deaths have been attributed to the virus (an increase of 651 from yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 4.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely much lower, between 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 32,827,359 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (621,114 conducted since yesterday), 8.2 percent have come back positive.

  • The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) officially went into effect yesterday, replacing NAFTA as North America’s new trade deal.
  • Thousands of Hong Kong protesters demonstrated against Beijing’s new national security law Wednesday. Protesters were met with pepper spray and tear gas, and Hong Kong police officers made about 370 arrests.
  • The Biden campaign and DNC outraised the Trump campaign and RNC for a second straight month in June, $141 million to $131 million. Trump likely still holds the cash-on-hand advantage, however, with $295 million in the bank. Team Biden has not yet released that figure.
  • Gun sales soared to 2.3 million in June, a 145.3 percent increase over June 2019. With 8.3 million firearms sold in the United States since March, retailers are having a hard time meeting demand.
  • American and Afghan intelligence officials identified Rahmatullah Azizi—a drug smuggler and contractor—as the middleman between Russia and the Taliban. Azizi “ for years handed out money from a Russian military intelligence unit to reward Taliban-linked fighters for targeting American troops in Afghanistan,” the New York Times reports.
  • Republicans in Congress are planning to introduce legislation that would block President Trump’s efforts to withdraw 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany by September 30.

Is Trump Going to Cost Republicans the Senate?

As recently as May 31, President Trump was still favored in betting odds to win November’s election. Now he’s nearly a 23-point underdog.

Political betting markets are far from scientific—they tend to say more about public perception of a candidate’s campaign than actual voter preferences—but polling is, and that doesn’t look too good for the president right now, either. As it stands, Trump’s polling numbers—both nationally and in key battleground states—are among the worst for an incumbent in recent presidential history. Down-ballot Republicans are starting to take notice.

The president’s base has remained largely loyal to him over the past three years, but the reluctant Trump voters and Republican-leaning moderates who were responsible for putting him over the edge in 2016 are less of a sure bet. A New York Times/Siena College poll yesterday found that while 86 percent of 2016 Trump voters in battleground states say they will vote for the president again, 6 percent say there’s “not really any chance” they will cast their vote for him in November.

New Voice of America Head Faces Rebuke—From Both Parties

We wrote to you a couple weeks back about Michael Pack—President Trump’s appointee to head the U.S. Agency for Global Media—and his purging of top officials at the government-funded but editorially independent collection of news networks meant to project a pro-America voice around the globe. Walter Shaub, the Obama administration’s director of the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, called the development the “Breitbartization of U.S. government media,” referencing Pack’s close ties to former Breitbart head Steve Bannon.

Bipartisanship is rare these days. But those changes moved a bipartisan collection of senators—Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, Jerry Moran, Dick Durbin, Chris Van Hollen, and Patrick Leahy—to send a striking letter yesterday expressing concern about these moves and Pack’s potential politicization of the agency.

Worth Your Time

  • Should we tear down monuments of deeply flawed historical figures when their actions on a whole tended toward the arc of justice? Boyd Matheson from Deseret News certainly doesn’t think so. “To arrogantly, by choice or cowardly by vandalism, tear down, disfigure or destroy monuments to those critical, complex and courageous figures in our nation’s history is indeed a monumental mistake,” he writes. Boyd argues that removing statues of less-than-perfect people loses sight of the American path toward progress by depriving future generations of some of history’s most important lessons. This pairs well with Politico’s piece on the descendants of Confederate generals who are happy to see their ancestors’ legacies erased from the public square. “I support removal of all statues commemorating and celebrating the Southern Confederates in public locations,” the great-great-grandson of Major General George E. Pickett said. “They should be permanently removed and either destroyed or sunk in the ocean for a fishing/diving reef: the Graveyard of the Confederacy.”
  • Jonathan Irons—a 40-year-old black man who was sentenced at the age of 18 to 50 years in prison for burglary and assault with a weapon in 1998—was released from Missouri’s Jefferson City Correctional Center on Wednesday. Irons has insisted he was misidentified all those years ago, and a judge vacated his conviction in March, saying the case against him was “very weak and circumstantial at best.” Irons’ pursuit of freedom was championed by former WNBA first overall draft pick, rookie of the year, MVP, and five-time all star Maya Moore. Moore, 31, put her career on hold—taking the 2019 season off—to focus on securing Irons’ freedom. Katie Barnes tells the story of her quest for justice in a wonderful piece for ESPN.
  • The world is still haunted by the nuclear meltdown at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi power plant less than a decade ago. But meltdowns may become a relic of the past thanks to triso (tristructural isotropic) fueled “power balls.” Check out Daniel Oberhaus’ recent article in Wired for a deep dive into the technology that’s shaping the future of safe and cheap nuclear energy.

Presented Without Comment

Rachel Bovard @rachelbovard

In which the Senate accidentally passes a bill to stop accidentally sending checks to dead people.

Toeing the Company Line

  • We here at The Dispatch are generally skeptical of “cancel culture” run amok, but there may be certain instances of it that everyone can get behind. Take, for example, the so-called progressive president who screened Birth of a Nation in the White House and re-segregated the federal government. Check out the Wednesday G-File (🔒) to get up to speed on Jonah’s renewed case for canceling Woodrow Wilson [insert “dun dun dun” sound effect].
  • As every loyal TMD reader knows, Supreme Court nerdery abounds within the Dispatch universe. Catch the latest Advisory Opinions podcast to get David and Sarah’s thoughts on Espinoza’s protection of religious liberty in school choice as well as the legal and political ramifications of the June Medical Services ruling.
  • We know that the Russian bounties were paid to Taliban insurgents. But we still don’t know whether that hush money is directly responsible for the death of American troops. In yesterday’s Vital Interests newsletter(🔒)Thomas Joscelyn provides a recap on the Taliban as well as some much-needed analysis on the chain of events linked to this intelligence leak.
  • In yesterday’s Dispatch Podcast, Sarah and the guys discussed Russia’s bounties on American and coalition forces in Afghanistan, the battle for control of the Senate, and cancel culture’s effect on our national conversation about race in America.

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Nate Hochman (@njhochman), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).