The Morning Dispatch: Speeding Up the Debt Clock

Plus, a noteworthy upset in North Carolina and an exciting announcement.

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Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • As of Thursday night, 2,421,134 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the United States (an increase of 40,644 from yesterday) and 124,402 deaths have been attributed to the virus (an increase of 2,433* from yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.1 percent (the true mortality rate is likely much lower, between 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 29,207,820 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (640,465 conducted since yesterday), 8.3 percent have come back positive. (*New Jersey updated its COVID-19 statistics reporting yesterday to include probable deaths from the virus, boosting yesterday’s figure by 1,854. We have included that tally in the table below, but because these deaths were spread out over the past several months, the additional 1,854 deaths are excluded from the chart’s trendline.)

  • The Centers for Disease Control believes that 5 percent to 8 percent of Americans have been exposed to the coronavirus, though only about 0.7 percent have tested positive for it. “Our best estimate right now is that for every case that’s reported, there actually are 10 other infections,” the agency’s director, Robert Redfield, said on a call with reporters.
  • With a surge in new COVID-19 cases and the state’s hospitalizations at all-time highs, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced Thursday he is pausing Texas’s reopening and once again banning elective medical procedures. Abbott has not yet rolled back any existing reopening progress, meaning restaurants can continue to operate at 75 percent capacity and other businesses at 50 percent.
  • Colorado Gov. Jared Polis ordered the state’s attorney general to reopen an investigation into the August 24, 2019, death of Elijah McClain, a 23-year-old black man who died after being put into a chokehold by three police officers. McClain was walking down the street in suburban Denver wearing a ski mask, which his sister said he wore due to a blood condition that caused him to get cold easily. An officer can be heard on body camera footage of the incident saying, “I have a right to stop you because you’re being suspicious.”
  • In a 7-2 ruling, the Supreme Court limited judicial oversight of expedited removal, strengthening the Trump administration’s ability to rapidly deport asylum-seekers from the United States.
  • report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office—an independent congressional watchdog—found that between March and April, the Treasury sent roughly $1.4 billion in stimulus payments to 1.1 million dead people.
  • The House of Representatives passed its version of police reform—the Justice in Policing Act—by a vote of 236-181. Republicans Will Hurd, Fred Upton, and Brian Fitzpatrick broke from their party to vote for the bill, but the legislation will not pass the GOP-led Senate.
  • According to data from the Department of Labor, another 1.5 million people filed for unemployment benefits this week, marking the 14th week in a row that claims have exceeded 1 million.
  • The Federal Reserve—citing the pandemic’s economic fallout—announced large banks must suspend share buybacks and cap dividend payments at their current level through the third quarter of 2020.

Wherefore Art Thou, Deficit Hawks?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on Wednesday, projecting a 4.9 percent global economic contraction this year— 8 percent in the United States—because of the pandemic. As a result, the IMF predicts global public debt will reach all-time highs both this year and next, exceeding 101 percent of worldwide GDP in 2020 and and 103 percent in 2021.

In the U.S., the coronavirus packed a powerful one-two punch for the remaining deficit hawks left in the country, an ever-shrinking group. Just as consumer spending plummeted—and with it GDP—because of state-imposed lockdowns and social distancing mandates, the federal government spent some $2 trillion to prop up the economy.

Brian Riedl—a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute—believes that our debt-to-GDP ratio will soon surpass levels not seen since World War II. But “World War II ended and the debt came down,” he added. “The danger we face is that because of continued recessionary costs, as well as the retirement of the baby boomers, the debt is going to hit about 130 percent of the economy within the next decade.” Over the next couple of decades, Riedl projects, debt could exceed 200 percent of the economy.

He’s How Old?

Madison Cawthorn is on track to be the youngest member of Congress in modern American history, after defeating Trump-backed establishment candidate Lynda Bennett in the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District.

Cawthorn, 24, who is wheelchair-bound as the result of a near-deadly 2014 car accident that left him partially paralyzed, will turn 25 on August 1, the required age to be viable for the House of Representatives. And in a congressional district that went for Trump by 17 points in 2016, Cawthorn’s surprise Republican nomination win has likely stamped his ticket to Washington.

The wunderkind’s success came as a surprise to many Republican insiders. Bennett was a close friend of Mark Meadows, who had represented the district since 2013 before abruptly retiring from the House to serve as President Trump’s chief of staff. The president himself had also backed Bennett’s candidacy—something she touted often on social media and in campaign videos—and he even recorded a robocall encouraging voters in the district to support the 62-year-old businesswoman.

Worth Your Time 

  • Over at The Forward, Cathy Young weighs in on two forms of authoritarianism we’ve witnessed spring up in recent days: the authoritarianism of the militarized state and the authoritarianism of the mob. The former is dangerous, she argues, but of lesser immediate concern than the latter: “At least so far, this Putinesque/Trumpian authoritarianism has been largely a bust. The protests only grew stronger, and arguably prevailed insofar as we’re seeing real progress on police reform. Military leaders including former Trump administration officials have pushed back strongly against the use of troops to disperse non-violent protesters. Trumpism is dangerous. But at the moment, I’m more worried about Soviet-style zealotry and witch-hunting on the left.”
  • Much of the internet was mystified by a Washington Post story last week that dredged up a years-old incident where a white woman who is not a public figure wore a misguided ironic blackface costume to a D.C. Halloween party, a story that subsequently got the woman fired from her job. This New York Magazine deep dive from Josh Barro and Olivia Nuzzi examines how the piece came to be written—and raises the unsettling possibility that the Post threw the woman to the mob because they feared that otherwise the mob might come after them.
  • Anthony Bourdain, the celebrity chef who somehow turned food writing into a dangerous-seeming and even sexy endeavor, would have turned 64 yesterday. In light of the occasion, we wanted to share this piece from last year—not one of Bourdain’s, but Foodbeast writer Emily J. Sullivan’s week-long adventure trying to cook Bourdain’s recipes.

Something Fun

Ben Folds’ newest song—“2020”—asks, “How many years will we try to cram into one?” (Note: the song contains some salty language and gratuitous criticism of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.)

Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

  • On this week’s Dispatch Podcast, Sarah and the guys get you up to speed on the state of the 2020 race going into the summer stretch and chew over the news from John Bolton’s book about his time in the Trump administration.
  • And be sure not to miss David and Sarah’s latest episode of Advisory Opinions, which covers, among other things, the latest developments in the Michael Flynn case and a SCOTUS decision that foreign nationals denied asylum in the United States cannot challenge that decision in U.S. courts.
  • Scott Lincicome explains just a few of the problems with the “Phase One” trade deal with China and says it was designed—perhaps unintentionally—to fail. “The entire deal rested on China’s willingness to fulfill its commitments—and that’s always been the big problem with China.”

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Nate Hochman (@njhochman), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).