That’s it. That’s the topper.

—@Jfagone: One of the most devastating owns in the new Borat movie is just a brief clip of Mike Pence from earlier in the year, bragging that the U.S. has only 15 coronavirus infections and that whatever happens, “We’re ready.”

—@Redistrict: More people have now early voted in Florida (4,771,956) than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in Florida in 2016 (4,617,886).

—@MatthewJSinger: A kind of funny and not totally implausible election night scenario is Florida being first to report, too close to call, everyone panicking, but Georgia and Texas are called for [Joe] Biden by the end of the night.

—@JMartNYT: There it is … Some smart folks think Ga may prove easier for Biden than Fla

—@MacStipanovich: There was a time when I feared Souls to the Polls and prayed for rain of Biblical proportions on early voting Sundays. Now I find myself praying that every single soul who can sit up and take solid food will go to the polls, rain or shine. Go figure.

—@DaNumbersGuy: Unsolicited advice to the @BidenForFL … put a shitload of resources (boots on the ground, phone bankers, surrogates, etc.) in Miami-Dade … yesterday! If not yesterday, today! Democratic voters aren’t mobilizing there like they should.

Tweet, tweet:

—@ChrisSprowls: Brett Phillips is from Pinellas County. 727 gets it done. Congrats Brett!

—@Rob_Bradley: I’m going out on a limb and saying that Tom Brady was the “indispensable man” in the Patriots Dynasty.

CNN Poll of Polls: As of Sunday, the CNN average has Biden dropping slightly to 52% compared to a steady 42% for Trump. The CNN Poll of Polls tracks the national average in the presidential race. They include the most recent national telephone surveys meeting CNN’s standards for reporting and which measure the views of registered or likely voters. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.

FiveThirtyEight.com: As of Sunday, Biden is still at an 87 in 100 chance of winning compared to Trump, who is now at a 12 in 100 shot. FiveThirtyEight also ranked individual states by the likelihood of delivering a decisive vote for the winning candidate in the Electoral College: Pennsylvania leads with 29.3%, while Wisconsin is now second at 13%. Florida is third with 12.4%. Other states include Michigan (9.3%), North Carolina (6.3%), Minnesota (5.2%), Arizona (5.1%) and Nevada (2.9%).

With just over a week until Election Day, Joe Biden is holding to his lead over Donald Trump in battleground states.

PredictIt: As of Sunday, the PredictIt trading market has Biden slipping to $0.62 a share, with Trump rising to $0.42.

Real Clear Politics: As of Sunday, the RCP average of General Election top battleground state polling has Biden leading Trump 50.8% to 42.8%. The RCP General Election polling average has Biden at +8 points ahead.

The Economist: As of Sunday, their model is still predicting Biden is “very likely” to beat Trump in the Electoral College. The model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on Election Day. According to The Economist, Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college is around 9 in 10 (91%) versus Trump with better than 1 in 10 (9%). They still give Biden a greater than 99% chance (better than 19 in 20) of winning the popular vote, with Trump at only 1% (less than 1 in 20).

“Beyond the needle: Probability experts assess 2020 race” via David Bauder of The Associated Press — The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of Trump is the Needle. A graphic on The New York Times’ website, the Needle measured in real-time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes were counted. Its steady movement triggered anxiety for Clinton supporters, who repeatedly refreshed the page, and elation for Trump fans. There’s no sign that the Needle will be making a reappearance on Nov. 3, which would be one change in the world of election probability gurus following the unexpected 2016 result. Nate Silver’s influential FiveThirtyEight blog used a number, not a needle, for the same task four years ago but won’t on election night 2020.

“Polls: Joe Biden has the edge in Florida and North Carolina” via David Cohen of POLITICO — A trio of CBS News Battleground Tracker polls show Biden with a slight edge over President Trump in three crucial Southeastern states. The polls show Biden and Trump dead even among likely voters in Georgia at 49 percent, but Biden with a 50-48 edge over Trump in Florida and a 51-47 advantage in North Carolina. Trump won all three of the states in 2016, which offer a total of 60 electoral votes between them. In all three states, a majority of those who had said they had already voted said they had voted for Biden: 55 percent in Georgia, and 61 percent in both Florida and North Carolina. The president had majority support among those who had yet to vote.

Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Christopher Krebs insists the 2020 election is secure, despite foreign agents trying to sow chaos.

“The unspectacular excellence of Joe Biden’s slow and steady campaign” via Tim Alberta of POLITICO — Presidential politics has always been about meeting the moment. In 2008, the electorate wanted someone to inspire them; Americans elected Barack Obama. In 2016, the electorate wanted someone to rock the boat; Americans elected Trump. In 2020, more than anything else, it seems the electorate wants a break from the Trump Show. Biden is meeting that moment. If Thursday’s debate was a final audition, he aced it. Not because he dazzled the American people, but because he invited them to change the channel.

“Biden, Trump sharpen messages with campaign stops in battleground states” via Amy B Wang and Colby Itkowitz of The Washington Post — Trump and Biden spent Saturday fanned out across Florida and the Midwest, sharpening their messages in key battleground areas with 10 days until Election Day. Their events illuminated the very different approaches each campaign has taken. Biden returned to his native Pennsylvania for socially distanced drive-in rallies in Bucks County and Luzerne County, two areas crucial to winning the important state, where he hammered Trump for his irresponsible handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump continued downplaying the dangers of the virus, which has killed more than 220,000 Americans since February.

“Biden has surged ahead of Trump in donors — including in the states that matter most” via Kevin Schaul, Anu Narayanswamy, Lauren Tierney and Michelle Ye Hee Lee of The Washington Post — While Biden was slow to raise money during the primaries, he quickly outpaced Trump. The Democratic nominee and his associated committees have received donations from nearly 5.9 million people, while Trump has seen donations from 3.7 million donors. In many swing states, there was an uptick in the number of people giving to Biden. The number of Biden donors in Pennsylvania grew from 37,000 in July to in 91,200 in September. In contrast, Trump’s donor count grew from 39,000 to 43,600 during that period.

“Trump bets on a 2016 replay, but faces a changed landscape” via Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey of The Washington Post — Trump and his advisers are betting on a high-octane replay of the closing two weeks of his 2016 campaign, with nonstop travel for packed rallies filled with attacks on alleged Democratic corruption in a bid to reignite the outsider spirit that defied the polls once before. Despite health authorities discouraging his largely maskless outdoor events and an opponent who has maintained strong favorability ratings, Trump is urgently trying to reassemble the core elements of his 2016 upset win: news coverage of red-hatted spectacles, calls for a criminal investigation of his rival and the mischaracterization of allegedly leaked documents in the final stretch of the campaign.

“Tough questions undercut Trump’s reliance on local media coverage” via Meredith McGraw of POLITICO — The cash-hungry Trump campaign has turned to a cheaper strategy to try to remain on the airwaves, flooding TV and radio through local media bookings and back-to-back-to-back rallies. But the gambit has been challenged by a trail of negative headlines that have followed the President: articles about rallies that eschew pandemic guidelines, news of people sickened by coronavirus afterward, spats with local officials that dominate regional coverage before and after a visit. For the Trump campaign, down in the polls and facing a funding shortfall, its local news strategy will be critical as it tries to make up for lost ground.

“’I voted for a guy named Trump.’ President casts historic ballot in Palm Beach County” via Christine Stapleton and Antonio Fins of The Palm Beach Post — Nearly three months after urging Florida voters to use mail-in ballots because elections in Florida are “safe and secure,” Trump voted in person at an early voting site in West Palm Beach on Saturday. “It was very secure, much more secure than when you send in a ballot,” said Trump, standing in front of aisles of books at the main branch of the Palm Beach County Public Library on Summit Boulevard. “Everything was perfect. Very strict — right by the rules. When you send in your ballot it could never be like that.” In casting his ballot at the library, Trump made Florida history: the first incumbent President to vote in-person as a state resident.

Donald Trump makes history as he casts a ballot in West Palm Beach. Image via AP.

“In must-win Florida, an economic rebound gives Trump a shot” via Michael Sasso of Bloomberg — Florida’s economic picture has been as murky as Trump’s odds of winning the state next month, but the outlook for both is brightening. Florida, with 29 electoral votes, has backed the presidential victor every year since 1996 and is accordingly often viewed as a “must-win” state. Coronavirus cases and deaths have been declining lately after a summer surge, leading businesses to reopen and begin rehiring. The economy’s improving trajectory looked to benefit Trump, even if Biden’s support increased in late September. Then came a rash of layoff announcements at Walt Disney Co. and Universal Orlando Resort in Central Florida and American Airlines in Miami, clouding the picture once again.

“Younger Cuban voters in Florida offer an opening for Trump.” via Patricia Mazzei of The New York Times — The conventional wisdom about the Florida electorate has long been that Miami-Dade County’s unavoidable political destiny was to turn even more Democratic as younger Cuban Americans replaced the older Cuban exiles who formed a powerful Republican stronghold. That fate may not have been as predetermined as everyone once thought. Second- and third-generation Cuban Americans born in the United States have continued to drift away from their parents’ and grandparents’ Republican Party. But, in a trend that went largely unnoticed by Democrats until lately, more recent Cuban immigrants who previously displayed little engagement in American politics have started to identify as Trump Republicans.

“Republicans crash Florida early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead” via Marc Caputo and Sabrina Rodriguez of POLITICO Florida — Florida Republicans are pouring out of the trenches. After weeks of Democrats outvoting them by mail, Republican voters stormed early voting precincts in person this week, taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in preelection Day ballots. The Democratic advantage was still huge as of Saturday morning: 387,000 ballots. But that’s a 21 percent reduction from Democrats’ high-water mark, set three days prior. Trump was one of those GOP voters going to the polls, kicking off Florida’s statewide in-person early voting period by casting his ballot in West Palm Beach.

“Trump uses Pensacola rally to urge Panhandle to vote” via Jim Little of the Pensacola News Journal — Fresh off the final presidential debate with Democratic candidate Biden, Trump made a stop in Pensacola to campaign in the conservative-leaning Panhandle less than two weeks from Election Day. Trump spoke before a large crowd of several thousand people on the tarmac in front of the ST Engineering hangar at the Pensacola International Airport and urged his supporters to turn out to vote. “I am going to rely on you to get out and vote,” Trump said. “Vote early, bring your friends, your family, your neighbor, your co-workers, even bring your boss and say, ‘Come out, boss, you’re coming to vote. You’ve got to vote.’ The most important election we’ve had. I really believe that.”

“Vice Presidents Day: Mike Pence rallies Trump supporters in Tallahassee for ‘four more years’” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Tallahassee Democrat — Undeterred by a stormy forecast, hundreds of Trump supporters in Tallahassee stood outside on a rain-slick tarmac for several hours Saturday afternoon waiting for Pence to arrive and lead the party faithful in a chant of “four more years.” The rain stopped around sunset and the clouds lifted as Air Force Two delivered Pence to an estimated 800 supporters of Trump in front of the stage. He spoke outside the hangar of the Flightline Group Aerospace Company, just west of Tallahassee International Airport.

“About 1,000 Trump supporters attend Pence rally at Lakeland Linder International Airport” via Sara-Megan Walsh of The Lakeland Ledger — Roughly a thousand Trump supporters went wild when Pence arrived for a rally at Lakeland Linder International Airport late Saturday afternoon, their spirits revived after several hours under a hot October sun. Pence’s visit to the Sunshine State for the “Make America Great Again Victory Rally” marked the first official rally in Polk County by either presidential campaign for the 2020 election. “Here in Florida you believe we could be strong again, you believe we could be prosperous again,” he said. “You said yes to President Donald Trump in 2016 and I know that Florida will say yes to Florida resident President Donald Trump in 2020.”

“Ivanka Trump set to stump for her father in Sarasota” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — Trump‘s daughter, Ivanka Trump, will be in Sarasota Tuesday to stump for her father just one week before the Nov. 3 voting deadline. Ivanka Trump will appear at Nathan Benderson Park in Sarasota at approximately 1:30 p.m. Doors open for the event at noon on Tuesday. Trump campaign events have largely shirked social distancing guidelines as he tries to rally support among voters already casting their ballots here in Florida and around the country. A Saturday night appearance by Pence in Tallahassee continued that trend of ignoring health recommendations amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Pence’s visit came as news broke Saturday that several Pence aides had tested positive for the coronavirus.

—”‘If you bring Florida home this thing’s over.’ Barack Obama makes surprise Miami Springs stop” via Alex Daugherty and Bianca Padró Ocasio of the Miami Herald

Barack Obama made his second in-person campaign stop for Joe Biden on Saturday, stopping at Florida International University in Miami. Image via AP.

“Former President Obama to visit Orlando to campaign for Biden” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel — Former President Obama will be in Orlando on Tuesday to campaign for Biden. The details of where and when the former President would appear were not immediately released. The trip comes after Obama held a drive-in car rally for the Biden Campaign in Miami on Saturday. Florida could be a crucial state in the race between Biden and Trump, who has held rallies in Sanford, Ocala, The Villages and Pensacola in the past two weeks. Obama visited Central Florida twice in the final two weeks before the 2016 election, holding events for Hillary Clinton at the University of Central Florida and Kissimmee.

“Biden needs Black voters to turn out better than ’16, in Florida and across nation” via John Kennedy of the Pensacola News Journal — Four years after Clinton was stung by diminished backing from Black voters, Biden is relying on this 13% of the Florida electorate to help him carry a state most analysts say Trump must win to have any chance for a second term. Obama’s visit Saturday to Miami is among the most eye-catching events designed to rally Black voters to Biden, who needs to regain strong minority turnout levels seen in the 2008 and 2012 elections to carry the biggest presidential tossup state. In rural Gadsden County, Florida’s only county with a majority Black population, a steady stream of voters stopped to cast their ballots at the elections supervisor’s office in downtown Quincy during the first week of early voting.

“How the Trump campaign used big data to deter Miami-Dade’s Black communities from voting” via the Miami Herald — Trump’s team knew they couldn’t win the 2016 election simply by persuading people to vote for Trump. They also had to make sure Clinton supporters didn’t come out to the polls. So the campaign and its allies used big data to target Black communities along Miami-Dade County’s historically disenfranchised Interstate 95 corridor. There, residents became some of the 12.3 million unwitting subjects of a groundbreaking nationwide experiment: A computer algorithm that analyzed huge sums of potential voters’ personal data decided they could be manipulated into not voting. They probably wouldn’t even know it was happening.

“‘What’s happening out there’ with Black men and Trump?” via Eugene Scott of The Washington Post — In the final presidential debate, Trump and Biden argued over who had been better for the Black community, in ways we’ve heard them do before. Black voters overwhelmingly back the Democratic Party in presidential elections, more than any other group. Some Black male voters may be drawn to the same thing many Trump supporters find attractive: a worldview that the America of yesteryear was a country at its greatest on cultural issues. And because of this, some Black male support for Trump is a repudiation of a society that increasingly rejects the sexism, misogyny and homophobia that are often prevalent in traditional ideas about manhood.

“Florida Dems hope for a boost from Puerto Rican voters — but they shouldn’t assume all Boricuas will vote blue” via Dara Kam of Orlando Weekly — As Trump continues to draw strong support from Hispanics in South Florida, Democrat Joe Biden and his supporters are targeting Puerto Ricans along the Interstate 4 corridor in the effort to flip the state blue. “The Tampa to Orlando corridor, it’s key,” Latino Victory Fund Chairman Luis Miranda Jr. told reporters during a video conference Friday. Trump has solid backing from Cuban American voters, especially in Miami-Dade County, who for decades has been a reliable source of support for Republican candidates running statewide. Cuban Americans account for nearly 30 percent of Hispanic voters in Florida.

“The Republican identity crisis after Trump” via Nicholas Lemann of The New Yorker — The major political development of the past decade, all over the world, has been a series of reactions against economic insecurity and inequality powerful enough to blow apart the boundaries of conventional politics. An ambitious Republican can’t ignore Trumpism. Nor can an ambitious Democrat: The Democratic Party has also failed to address the deep economic discontent in this country. But is it possible to address it without opening a Pandora’s box of virulent rage and racism? Lisa McGirr, a historian at Harvard, told me: “The component of both parties that did not grapple with the insecurity of many Americans — that created the opportunity for exclusionary politics. It’s not Trump. It’s an opportunity that Trump seized.”

“They’re afraid. They’re buying guns. But they’re not voting for Trump.” via Ciara O’Rourke of POLITICO — For months, Trump has tweeted “LAW & ORDER” in all caps and cast himself as a “tough on crime” leader who will quell the unrest that defined the summer. He warned the “suburban housewives of America” that Biden would destroy their neighborhoods. It’s a message that seems designed to appeal to anxious people. But it isn’t. The demographics of gun buyers appear to be shifting, too. Retailers are selling to more women, and more Black men and women, than in previous years.

“Maskless Trump fan blocks masked Biden supporter at Florida poll: ‘He’s asking for trouble, let’s give it to him’” via Tommy Christopher of Mediaite — Maskless Trump fans got into it with a lone supporter of Biden as they all waited for Trump to cast his vote at a West Palm Beach, Florida early voting site, and even blocked his view of the site until an election supervisor intervened. There was a bit of drama Saturday morning when a crowd of spottily-masked Trump supporters gathered to watch Trump’s arrival at the site to cast his vote for President but had to be pushed back by a site supervisor because they were far too close for the state’s 150-foot rule. At one point, one of them claimed it was the lone supporter of Trump’s opponent, among them a man holding a “Firefighters for Biden/Harris” sign, who “tattled” on them for violating the 150-foot rule by about a hundred feet.

“Orlando worker fired after speaking out about letter that warned employees of layoffs if Biden wins” via Greg Fox of WESH — Stan Smith, who spoke out about a letter from his boss threatening layoffs if Biden wins the election has now been fired. Daniels Manufacturing Corporation President George Daniels included a letter with recent paystubs reading, “If Trump and the Republicans win the election, DMC will hopefully be able to continue operating, more or less as it has been operating lately.” This week, Smith was fired. He believes Daniels, the president of the company that makes tools and electronics for the military, aerospace, and aircraft industries, ordered his termination because he didn’t like what he told WESH 2 News.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

America First Action ad hits Biden’s tax plan — Pro-Trump political committee America First Action released new anti-Biden ads in Florida focused on the former VP’s plan to overturn the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The first ad features several people saying raising taxes “would be a disaster” and make it “impossible for Florida families, businesses and workers to recover in the wake of the coronavirus.” A second ad draws the same conclusion, but does so in Spanish. They will air in the Miami-Dade market as part of the PAC’s $22 million total investment in Florida.

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

“Where are all these Democratic votes coming from? Some of Florida’s reddest counties.” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Where is the Democratic advantage in Florida’s early voting and vote-by-mail coming from? It turns out in ruby-red districts. The clearest example comes in Collier County, where Democratic turnout 10 days out from the election had already exceeded 62%. That’s not to say Collier County Republicans should shake in their boots. About 54% of Republicans in the county also already turned out. But it’s a sign how the presidential election could turn in the largest swing state. The second-highest Democrat turnout comes in Sumter County, home to The Villages. In that county, 14,696 Democrats already voted, or 60% of all registered there. In Martin County, another GOP-majority area, 58% of Democrats already voted, or 10,751.

“LeBron James on Black voter participation, misinformation and Trump” via Astead W. Herndon of The New York Times — More Than a Vote, the collective of athletes headlined by James, will introduce its final political push before Election Day, a rapid response and advertisement operation meant to combat the spread of misinformation among younger Black voters. The initiative, which is a collaboration with the political group Win Black and includes some celebrity partners, will seek to educate younger Black voters on how to spot false political statements spreading on social media. The goal is to provide advice that culminates in young people making a plan to vote, either by absentee ballot or in person. Called “Under Review,” the effort will be featured on Snapchat through Election Day, and will include videos from celebrities and activists.

“Health groups running get-out-vote social media videos in Florida” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — The 30-second spot “Wheel of Fortune” will be appearing on social media and other digital platforms in Florida over the next 10 days, along with two other “Healthy Voting” spots. The spots are from the nonpartisan group Healthy Voting. They are part of a $2.2 million campaign by a project of the American Public Health Association, Center for Civic Design, Center for Tech and Civic Life, National Association of County and City Health Officials, and We Can Vote. The buy is for Facebook, YouTube, Snapchat, Pandora, Spotify, Verizon Video and “over the top” TV services like Roku, for viewers in Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

To watch “Wheel of Fortune,” click on the image below:

“Mike Fernandez injects $1.2M into All Voters Vote amendment” via News Service of Florida — Fernandez has injected $1.2 million into the campaign to pass a proposed constitutional amendment that would revamp the state’s primary-election system. Fernandez and a related firm, MBF Family Investments Ltd., contributed the money this week to the political committee All Voters Vote, according to a newly filed finance report. Fernandez has been the main financial backer of the committee, which is trying to pass what appears as Amendment 3 on the November ballot. The proposal seeks to overhaul Florida’s primary election system by allowing voters to cast ballots in primary elections regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates getting the most votes in each primary would advance to the General Election.

“Alan Cohn and Scott Franklin congressional campaigns trip over finance reporting” via William March of the Tampa Bay Times — The congressional campaign of Cohn is accusing Franklin of trying to hide politically sensitive donors, after Franklin’s latest campaign finance report omitted employer and occupation information for more than 50 donors, including prominent, politically involved and wealthy individuals. At the same time, the Franklin campaign alleges that Cohn received some $200,000 from a joint fundraising committee for which Cohn was late filing paperwork, which they said makes the contribution illegal. Both campaigns say the discrepancies are minor paperwork errors easily or already fixed. But the accusations carry resonance in a district embroiled for two years in controversy over illegal campaign fundraising by incumbent Rep. Ross Spano.

INBOX — “Poll in FL-15 shows race statistically tied between Alan Cohn and Scott Franklin” — Change Research surveyed likely voters in Florida’s 15th Congressional District, finding Alan Cohn within striking distance of Scott Franklin. The data suggest that Cohn has an opportunity to flip this seat blue if provided the resources to communicate effectively with voters in the final stretch leading up to Election Day. Cohn and Franklin locked in a competitive race. … The poll shows Alan Cohn in a statistical tie with Scott Franklin (44% Cohn to 46% Franklin), well within the margin of error.”

“Vern Buchanan and Margaret Good tangle during only debate in congressional race” via Zac Anderson of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — The first and only debate between U.S. Rep. Buchanan and his challenger, state Rep. Good, saw the candidates distort each other’s records and positions during a series of aggressive exchanges that touched on everything from Medicare to Social Security, the coronavirus response and the environment. A 14-year incumbent GOP lawmaker from Longboat Key, Buchanan claimed Friday he has accomplished much more than Good, a Sarasota attorney who has served two years in the Legislature. Buchanan repeatedly stated that he passed 22 bills and Good passed none, even though many of the measures Buchanan passed actually were not stand-alone bills but language incorporated into larger pieces of legislation.

“Why Florida’s Treasure Coast could back Biden but elect a Republican to Congress” via Karina Elwood of the Miami Herald — While Florida’s Treasure Coast backed Trump in 2016, four years later Biden has a chance to flip it. Down the ticket, it’s a race between two veterans in a Republican-leaning district: Brian Mast is the incumbent who is backed by Trump but also a well-known advocate for opposing discharges from Lake Okeechobee that fill rivers in his district with toxic blue-green algae. Former Naval judge advocate Pam Keith is a Black woman aligning herself with the hard left. The race, where Mast is a heavy favorite, will likely come down to middle-of-the-road voters who can be persuaded to split their ballots for President and Congress.

“Personal attacks dominate Miami congressional race between Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Carlos Giménez” via Alex Daugherty of the Miami Herald — In Florida’s most competitive congressional race, the allegations are coming fast and they’re personal. Corrupt. Dangerous. Dead wrong for Miami. But in ads posted by groups supporting Giménez and Mucarsel-Powell in the multimillion-dollar fight for Florida’s 26th Congressional District, some of the fiercest attacks are not focused on the candidates themselves, or their records, but on their families. Giménez, the Republican Mayor of Miami-Dade County, is going after Mucarsel-Powell’s husband for his work with a publicly-traded company that took but then returned federal Paycheck Protection Program money.

“Giménez still struggling to keep pace in fundraising against Mucarsel-Powell” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — Newly-filed reports with the Federal Election Commission show Democratic Rep. Mucarsel-Powell again easily outraised her Republican opponent in the race for CD 26. Mucarsel-Powell topped Giménez by a $374,000 to $195,000 margin from Oct. 1-14. She has outraised Giménez in every reporting period since Giménez joined the race in January. A review of recent 48-Hour Notices hinted Mucarsel-Powell would come out on top once again following her dominant third quarter. Those 48-Hour reports display all donations of $1,000 or more made within 20 days of an election, up until 48 hours before Election Day.

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is taking s significant money lead over Carlos Giménez.

“PBSO, state attorney warn about voter intimidation amid spat at Jupiter early voting site” via Sam Howard and Eliot Kleinberg of The Palm Beach Post — Palm Beach County’s top law-enforcement officials issued a warning about voter intimidation Friday, the same day a Republican Party volunteer acknowledged that the Supervisor of Elections Office received a complaint about her after a voter said she was harassing people. In a joint advisory posted Friday, the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office and the Palm Beach County State Attorney’s Office said they “will be vigilant and proactive in protecting these cherished rights. Voter intimidation will not be tolerated.” The agencies urged anyone who saw possible violations to report them to a poll worker and local law enforcement. The State Attorney’s Office and PBSO said the advisory was not sparked by any specific incidents but was just “proactive.”

“Souls to the Polls campaign draws voters to Orlando’s Amway Center” via Lisa Maria Garza of the Orlando Sentinel — COVID-19 nixed the Souls to the Polls tradition of congregants arriving on packed buses at polling sites after Sunday services. Instead, attendees stood in line to have their temperatures taken at kiosks before entering the grounds and being directed by volunteers to nearby hand sanitizer stations. Another Souls to the Polls drive is expected to happen next Sunday, two days before Election Day. Sunday’s event capped off a weekend of parades and prayer services in Central Florida aimed at increasing turnout of Black voters. The Equal Ground Education Fund, a Black-led nonpartisan and nonprofit organization, hosted the event at the Amway Center and a similar drive at Sanford’s Allen Chapel AME Church.

“#GlamtheVote campaign urges voters to put on their best clothes and go to the polls in style” via Julius Whigham II of The Palm Beach Post — A West Palm Beach-based community outreach organization is encouraging Palm Beach County residents to have their voices heard while showing off a little style in the process. The West Palm Beach Chapter of The Links, Incorporated, a civic organization of local Black women, has launched a social media campaign, #GlamtheVote, in hopes of inspiring turnout at the polls. The premise: Dress up in your best attire to go vote, take a selfie and share it on the hashtag. “You dress up to go out to dinner. You dress up to go to movies. Why not dress up and go vote and be proud of it?” said Destinie Baker Sutton, chairperson for the Links National Trends & Services Facet.

First in Sunburn — Brodeur says parents need ‘flexibility and compassion’ — Brodeur is out with a new ad saying Florida parents need choices when it comes to educating their children in the pandemic era. The Sanford Republican says his understanding is informed by his mother, who taught in Seminole County Schools for 23 years. “Our public schools are among the best in Florida. As they reopen they’re offering parents flexibility — online education, in-person or a blend of both,” he said. “That’s the right thing to do, because there’s no one-size-fits-all solution. Parents need flexibility and compassion, not judgment.”

To watch the ad, click on the image below:

“Ana Maria Rodriguez holds $640K advantage for closing days of SD 39 campaign” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — Rep. Rodriguez has a nearly $643,000 cash advantage over her Democratic opponent, Javier Fernández, as the candidates make their final pushes in the Senate District 39 race. That’s according to the latest reports filed with the Division of Elections. Those reports show Rodriguez keeping up her fundraising advantage over Fernández as Republicans seek to hold the seat being vacated by term-limited GOP Sen. Anitere Flores. Rodriguez brought in close to $175,000 from Oct. 3-16 between her campaign and political committee, Ethics and Honesty in Government. Fernández added just over $170,000.

“Democrat Nina Yoakum picks up 3,000 contributions in two weeks” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — House District 50 candidate Yoakum has become yet another Democratic legislative candidate in Florida benefiting from micro-donations that national Democratic organizations are soliciting toward Florida races. Yoakum’s latest campaign finance report shows she picked up nearly 3,100 donations in the two-week period of Oct. 3-16. The vast majority were for less than $10, and from throughout the country, solicited by various Democratic organizations and funneled through the ActBlue campaign finance contributions platform. With two $1,000 checks she also received from out of state, her campaign managed to raise $36,287 for the House District 50 contest with Republican Rep. Rene Plasencia.

“Poll shows Kaylee Tuck a heavy favorite in HD 55” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Tuck appears to face an easy path to the statehouse, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls. If the Nov. 3 election were held today, 63% of likely voters in House District 55 would bubble the Sebring attorney’s name. Around 30% would pick Democrat Linda Tripp. Only 7% remain undecided or won’t disclose their choice. About 53% of voters have already voted in the House race, and while Tuck’s lead isn’t so massive there, she still enjoys a 53% to 41% lead on Tripp. That’s especially notable as 67% of likely Democratic voters in the district and 72% of independents already cast their ballots, but only 40% of Republicans have already locked in their vote. About 53% of Republicans voters plan to vote in person.

Kaylee Tuck is finding an easy time in HD 55.

“Fiona McFarland holds cash edge over Drake Buckman in final stretch” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Whatever the polls show, McFarland continues to dominate in fundraising in House District 72. Looking toward the final stretch of the election, the Sarasota Republican as of Oct. 16 boasts $89,052 in cash on hand. Buckman holds $70,976. That’s after a reporting period where McFarland raised $93,364 between Oct. 3 and Oct. 16. Buckman in the same time frame raised $31,650. That fundraising period notably closed four days before Florida Politics released a poll showing Buckman leading McFarland by 4 percentage points. That likely will fuel fundraising appeals on both sides of the race.

The internal poll, conducted by SEA Research, gives Levine Cava a 45%-30% lead over her opponent, fellow Miami-Dade County Commissioner Esteban “Steve” Bovo. The remaining 25% of voters are undecided, according to the poll.

Her campaign’s internal polls have told a fairly consistent story since she and Bovo emerged from the Aug. 18 primary contest. A survey released the next day, on Aug. 19, had Levine Cava up by 11 points. Just over a month later, she was up by 13.

Polling shows Daniela Levine Cava with a double-digit lead over Steve Bovo.

The newest version of the poll ran from Oct. 20-22 and sampled 402 likely Miami-Dade County voters. It has a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.

Levine Cava’s team also took a peek at the 2020 presidential contest. The data showed Biden leading Trump 58%-37% inside Miami-Dade.

That’s right around the margin seen in 2016 when Trump lost the district by 20 points. Levine Cava’s survey bears better for Democrats than a recent internal poll from Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala. Shalala’s survey showed Trump down 13 to Biden, which stands as a 7-point improvement for Trump from 2016.

Carlos Giménez helped 86 a plan to use sporting arenas as early voting sites.

“Welcome to Florida’s Hendry County, home of heartland values and small-town tension” via Claire McNeill of the Tampa Bay Times — Everywhere, Trump signs. Says one billboard, looming over the freight route: SAVE AMERICA FROM SOCIALISM. The air feels particularly charged this fall. “People seem to be excited about it,” Supervisor of Elections Brenda Hoots said. “But I’ve been fooled before. You think, ‘Oh, we’re going to have the best turnout we’ve ever had,’ but then it’s like, ‘Where did everybody go?’” Hendry’s 2016 turnout was Florida’s lowest. Only 64.5 percent of registered voters cast a ballot. Two years later, in the midterms, Hendry stayed at the bottom with 50.5 percent. It’s a pattern.

“John Tobia tops Brevard list in ‘bundled’ donations that are legal but dubious for critics” via Jim Waymer of Florida Today — Brevard County Commissioner Tobia makes no apologies for his pro-growth stances, which brought bundles of cash from building interests into his reelection campaign, particularly from one Melbourne developer who scored crucial Commission land-use and zoning changes and has other key commissioner decisions pending. It’s been a common practice that plays out repeatedly in local politics in Brevard County and across the state: Donations linked to the same person being made through the individual’s business, clubs and immediate family, multiplying the amounts donated and with it, potentially, the influence of the donor.

COVID-19 cases are continuing or grow in Florida. Image via AP.

“Florida is on the verge of a COVID-19 resurgence” via Marc Freeman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — A decline of cases since the summer surge is over, four weeks into the state’s Phase 3 reopening of bars and restaurants at full service, state and national data indicates. With DeSantis promising there’s no chance of a return to lockdowns, no matter the severity of another surge, we can expect more people will need hospital treatment and more will die, experts say. “My worry for Florida is that the embers are out there and they’re starting to burn, and by the time we see it in the numbers that are reported officially, it’s too late,” said Dr. Thomas Giordano, chief of infectious diseases at Baylor College of Medicine.

“As White House Task Force warns Florida of possible COVID-19 uptick, state tries to keep report from public” via Naseem S. Miller of the Orlando Sentinel — There are “early warning signs” that COVID-19 cases are ticking up in Florida, in the Villages and several counties, including Brevard, and the state should be closely tracking the data and reacting with “increased mitigation” in those areas, according to a little-known report that the White House Coronavirus Task Force sends Florida each week. “Testing must increase statewide,” the report recommends. The report covers the week of Oct. 5 and it’s not clear if the document is the latest available report sent to Ron DeSantis‘ office.

“Palm Beach County rushed to mail masks to the public. Did they get the best deal?” via Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — As Palm Beach County forges ahead with mailing out millions of masks to the public, it’s facing fresh scrutiny over the more than $11 million in contracts it has awarded without competitive bidding to make it happen. The questions have hinged on why one company, Mayorca Enterprises, obtained multimillion-dollar agreements in recent months for the masks. One of the county’s biggest employers, Office Depot, stepped in this summer to ask why the county hadn’t let others in on the work. And some residents questioned the Mayor’s political contributions from Mayorca. County officials have dismissed any notion that political contributions played a role in the company’s contracts. They say the urgency of the pandemic has driven the county’s decision-making.

“More students returning to campus next month, but fewer than school district expected” via Andrew Marra of The Palm Beach Post — Most elementary students plan to attend classes in person next month in Palm Beach County public schools, but more than two-thirds of high school students intend to keep learning from home. Asked by the school district to “lock-in” their choices for the school year’s second grading period, more parents are choosing to send their children back to campus, district records show. Overall, 45% of the district’s 167,000 students are expected to attend in person when the new period begins Nov. 4, up from 36% when campuses reopened Sept. 21. But the increase in students returning to campus is less than administrators had anticipated, particularly at the high school level, where 71% of students still intend to learn from home.

Mike Pence’s chief of staff, Marc Short, was one of several in the VP’s inner circle to test positive for COVID-19.

“The price for not wearing masks: Perhaps 130,000 lives” via Apoorva Mandavilli of The New York Times — Universal mask use could prevent nearly 130,000 deaths from COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, in the United States through next spring, scientists reported. The findings follow an assertion by Dr. Scott W. Atlas, the president’s science adviser, that masks are ineffective, in a tweet later taken down by Twitter for spreading misinformation. On Wednesday, the CDC released new guidance recommending mask use in public settings, including public transportation. A surge of infections has begun to overwhelm hospitals in much of the nation. More than 75,000 new cases were reported in the United States on Thursday, the second-highest daily total nationwide since the pandemic began. Eight states set single-day case records.

“‘Toxic’: CDC staffers say morale inside the public health agency has plummeted during the pandemic” via Mary Pflum, Laura Strickler, Geoff Bennett and Sarah Fitzpatrick of NBC News — Months of mixed messages, political pressure and public gaffes about COVID-19 have caused morale at the CDC to turn “toxic,” said four current and two former CDC staffers, with one saying the election could be a “tipping point” for a mass exodus if Trump wins. “The house is not only on fire,” said a veteran CDC staffer who did not want to be named for fear of retribution. “We’re standing in ashes.” Current and former CDC employees told NBC News that career staffers are still struggling to influence key decisions on the pandemic as new daily COVID-19 cases soar nationwide, but are overruled by Trump appointees when politics intrudes.

COVID-19 is making some permanent changes in the American workforce. Image via AP.

“Ron DeSantis pledged to investigate Florida’s unemployment system. Did he keep his word?” via Wendy Rhodes of The Palm Beach Post — Last May, as Floridians watched, DeSantis agreed to call for an investigation of the state’s flawed unemployment system as untold numbers of jobless residents fumed in frustration over obstacles that prevented them from filing for help and delayed assistance. More than five months later, a review of records obtained by the Palm Beach Post this week raises questions about whether DeSantis followed up on his pledge to Floridians. In addition, Agriculture Commissioner Fried said she has received no response to her own call for a state investigation — a request she made only hours before DeSantis’ announcement. Nor, Fried said, has she received any communication that would lead her to believe a state inspector general probe is underway.

“Prosecutors: Florida man lied to get virus relief money” via The Associated Press — A Florida man who received more than $1.9 million in coronavirus relief funds is accused of laundering most of the money through a fake business and purchasing a luxury car and a pickup truck, federal prosecutors said. Keith William Nicoletta of Dade City, was arrested earlier this week and charged with bank fraud and illegal monetary transactions, according to the U.S. attorney’s office in Tampa. He faces up to 40 years in federal prison. Prosecutors accuse Nicoletta of falsely claiming on a loan application that he had a scrap metal business with 69 employees and a monthly payroll of more than $760,000

The Department of Health and Human Services was looking toward Santa Claus to help promote a COVID-19 vaccine.

“A travel group report says flying is safe. The doctor whose research it cited says not so fast.” via Shannon McMahon of The Washington Post — The International Air Transport Association published a report this month aiming to reassure grounded travelers about the future of flying. The group collected medical journal data on in-flight coronavirus cases and used it to declare that commercial flights have a “low incidence of in-flight COVID-19 transmission” when masks are worn. Following an abundance of new research, the report says, only 44 cases of coronavirus have been linked to a flight, during a period when 1.2 billion passengers traveled. But a doctor whose work was cited in the report says that the group is misrepresenting his findings by only counting proven flight-linked cases that were published in medical journals.

Tropical Storm Zeta is moving toward the Gulf Coast. Image via NOAA.

“Why is Florida the only state requiring SAT/ACT for 2021 college admissions? A popular scholarship may be one reason” via Annie Martin and Leslie Postal of the Orlando Sentinel — Florida’s popular Bright Futures Scholarship program could be behind a controversial decision that has left the state as the only one in the country insisting students sit for ACT or SAT tests during the pandemic in order to apply for admission to public universities. Ally Schneider, a member of the board that oversees Florida’s 12 public universities, said Board of Governors’ staff have told her the state is reluctant to waive SAT/ACT requirement this year because students who want to qualify for the scholarships must still submit scores. None of the 15 other members of the Board of Governors, most of whom are appointed by the Governor, would answer questions about why they refused to lift the standardized test rule.

In a way, cannabis is on the ballot, both state and federal. Image via AP.

“EPA leaders, Greg Steube get firsthand look at Mosaic’s environmental efforts” via Florida Politics staff reports — Mosaic’s Florida Phosphate operations got a visit from the head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency this week to see firsthand how the company is implementing environmental best practices. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler was joined by the agency’s regional head, Mary Walker, Republican U.S. Rep. Steube and Fertilizer Institute President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. ”We’re honored to host Administrator Wheeler, Regional Administrator Walker, Congressman Steube and their teams for a tour of our Central Florida Operations which are critical to American and global food security,” Mosaic CEO Joc O’Rourke said.

Ocala Police Chief Greg Graham died Sunday in a small plane crash.

“Hendry County hired Clewiston officers who were never investigated for alleged sex with informant” via Devan Patel of the Naples Daily News — A confidential informant provided Clewiston police with multiple sworn statements in 2017 that she had sexual relations with two of its officers, once in exchange for money and the other while on duty. Despite her assertions, which she also recently made under oath in open court, and corroborating evidence, no investigation ensued. Police continued to use her as an informant, paying her nearly $3,000 the month after she alleged the sexual contact, police records show. After Clewiston police did not launch an official investigation in 2017, the officers involved left and found a common home: the Hendry County Sheriff’s Office.

“PBSO detective quit amid investigation of financial dealings with disgraced children’s charity” via Eliot Kleinberg of The Palm Beach Post — A special investigations detective resigned during an internal-affairs investigation that concluded he took checks from a charity gutted by a fellow deputy who’s now in prison, according to Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office documents. The investigation signed off on Sept. 28, determined Detective James Suarez also served on the board of Children of Wounded Warriors without PBSO permission, solicited donations during an investigation, tipped off the disgraced ex-deputy, Robert Simeone, about a subpoena and contacted him hundreds of times after his arrest. Investigators also found Suarez pressured a colleague to try to influence Simeone’s criminal case and lied to investigators about his involvement in the charity, according to documents.

“Florida Bar asks Supreme Court to discipline ‘abusive’ insurance lawyer” via Ron Hurtibise of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — The Florida Bar is asking the state Supreme Court to discipline one of the insurance industry’s longtime defenders following a series of rebukes by judges for obstructive and abusive behavior toward opponents. The Bar’s complaint against Curtis Lee Allen says the attorney, while defending a home insurance company against a lawsuit by a Tampa man, sought to “intimidate, embarrass and humiliate” the policyholder by threatening him with criminal charges and jail during a deposition. In recent years, Allen and his clients have been admonished by numerous Florida judges and ordered to pay penalties for failing to make court-ordered payments before deadlines set by judges, using abusive language toward witnesses and opposing attorneys, and failing to meet deadlines to produce evidence.

“Future of wildlife-rich forest near Boynton Beach pits residents against developers” via Jorge Milian of The Palm Beach Post — A densely wooded area just outside Boynton Beach’s city limits is home to several sensitive species, including gopher tortoises, which are protected under state law. But it may not stay that way for long, residents fear. The City Commission is considering approving a sales agreement with Pulte Homes that would permit the developer to purchase 14.7 acres of the forest area and construct nearly 100 single-family homes. Commissioners appear open to the proposals. Residents are furious and have taken to the streets. On Oct. 17, around 50 people who live in the neighborhood met on the corner of Old Boynton Road and Nickels Boulevard to rally against a possible sale. Another protest was planned for Saturday at the same location.

“Alachua County loses appeal on airboat restriction ordinance” via Emily Mavrakis of The Gainesville Sun — A panel of three appellate judges affirmed an earlier ruling that Alachua County’s airboat noise ordinance, which sought to prohibit the use of the vessels during certain hours, is unconstitutional. The ordinance was in conflict with state laws about airboat operations, Circuit Judges David Kreider, James Nilon and Craig DeThomasis wrote in a ruling signed Sept. 29. The ordinance, originally approved by Alachua County voters in November 2010, prohibited the use of airboats between 7 p.m. and 7 a.m. as the “most appropriate solution to the disturbance of sleep, peace, and welfare of residents caused by the excessive noise generated by airboats.”

“Electric scooter and moped rentals are back in Miami and Coral Gables. There’s a new rule.” via Rob Wile of the Miami Herald — Scooters are back in Miami-Dade — thousands of them, in fact. Last month, Miami-Dade quietly lifted its pandemic-related order that had banned the rental of electric motorized vehicles. The city of Miami subsequently voted to revive its scooter pilot program on Sept. 24. Friday, 2,700 scooters returned to the city’s District 2, which includes Coconut Grove, downtown and Edgewater. And there’s a new rule: Each scooter must now come equipped with disinfectant. The city’s scooter pilot program will run for another six months, or until the city has prepared a request-for-proposal that would determine which companies will be allowed to permanently operate in the city, Russell said.

“Why this former Florida lawmaker still matters after 20 years” via Steve Bousquet of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — The Florida Legislature is famous for failing to act. There was one time when a slow, deliberative approach was the right response, and it’s worth recalling now. John McKay was much less partisan than Feeney and he worried that strong-arm tactics by legislators would set a terrible precedent. It would have been an unprecedented raw power grab. McKay moved slowly and worked the clock like a crafty basketball coach. The Senate likely would have acted the next day, but the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Bush’s favor and Gore conceded. It was over. McKay, a commercial real estate broker from Bradenton, is 72 now. After he left the Senate in 2002, he never again ran for office.

“Bob Graham and Jeb Bush say your vote will count” via Bob Graham and Jeb Bush for the Tampa Bay Times — In many ways, we are a microcosm of America: a state whose residents come from all corners of our country, as well as from all around the globe. Every four years, Florida plays a vital role in charting the direction of our nation. This year, there is more misinformation than ever before being shared about the process of voting, the security of ballots, the accuracy of counts, and the confidence we can all have in results. In many ways, Florida is a model for administering elections. We have confidence in our process, and you should as well. As citizens, all of us now have the most important job, the job of voter.

“Lethal indifference to Florida prisoners dying of COVID-19” via the editorial board of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Florida used to confine its road-gang prisoners in old wooden barracks that it intended to replace sooner or later. On July 16, 1967, that became too late for 38 men who died when flames swiftly devoured one of those firetraps in a remote corner of the Panhandle. No one in authority had wanted that, but indifference can be just as deadly as intent. That long-ago tragedy comes to mind with the news that COVID-19 has killed 154 Florida prison inmates. Florida prisoners are being infected and dying at dramatically higher rates than Florida’s overall population — more than four times higher as to infections, half again as great as with deaths. It’s another example of lethal indifference.

Also, on today’s Sunrise:

— Pence spoke on the same day Obama was campaigning for Biden in Miami-Dade and accused Trump of behavior that puts “Florida Man” to shame.

— The former President spoke after the current President showed up at an early voting site to cast his ballot, trying to create more doubts about voting by mail. As you may have expected, Trump voted for himself.

— The Department of Health is reporting just 12 fatalities from COVID-19 Sunday, one of the lowest daily casualty counts on record. But remember: Weekend numbers are always low because of the way they’re reported. There’s been an increase in new COVID-19 cases with almost 2,400 in the past week … but the governor won’t be reinstating any sort of health restrictions.

— There have now been more than 778,000 COVID-19 cases in the Sunshine State.

— And finally, two Florida Men stories: One called 911 to report tiny aliens, while the other covered himself in trash bags before setting fires that damaged or destroyed a dozen garbage trucks.

To listen, click on the image below:

“Twerking Santas, ‘christmapolitans’ could give bars a needed boost” via Kate Krader of Bloomberg — Christmas will come early to New York this year. On Nov. 5, a pair of Miracle bars — the pop-up watering holes that scream “holidays” with twerking-Santa décor, elf-shaped mugs, and high-alcohol ‘Christmapolitans’ — will open for business at two locations in the East Village and West Village. Nationally, Miracle bars and their Sippin’ Santa cousins will start selling their festive cocktails on Nov. 23. The franchise started in the East Village in 2014 with Miracle on 9th Street and has since grown into an international behemoth. Last year, there were 107 Miracle outposts, and while the company is still finalizing the 2020 lineup, it expects around 100 participating locations across the country.

Christmapolitan: A holiday twist on a classic drink. Just the thing for 2020.