The Morning Dispatch: Is Trump Getting Antsy?

Plus, working through the economic costs of social distancing.

Happy Tuesday. It is Tuesday, isn’t it? The days are starting to run together now that we never see the sun.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

  • As of Monday night, there are now 46,438 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (a 40 percent increase from yesterday) and 586 deaths (a 41 percent increase from yesterday), leading to a mortality rate of 1.3 percent, according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard. About 15 percent of all coronavirus tests in the United States have come back positive, per the COVID Tracking Project, a separate dataset with slightly different top-line numbers.
  • The Senate failed yet again on Monday to reach agreement on the $2 trillion stimulus package negotiators are hammering out—46 of 47 Democrats voted against advancing the proposed legislation—but both Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed optimism a deal would be reached today.
  • The 2020 Olympics in Tokyo are increasingly likely to be postponed until next year. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has not made any formal announcements, but IOC member Dick Pound told USA Today “the games are not going to start on July 24, that much I know.”
  • After initially pursuing a more lax approach to “mitigate” rather than “suppress” the virus, the United Kingdom is changing course. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a three-week nationwide lockdown, ordering residents to stay at home.
  • The Federal Reserve announced additional measures to mitigate the economic harm wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.
  • Although Twitter launched a PR campaign to tout its new measures against disinformation and state-backed fake news earlier this month, the social media site has decided that false information tweeted by senior Chinese officials about the coronavirus’ origin, does not violate its terms of service.
  • A study published by the CDC on Monday found that the coronavirus survived on cruise ship surfaces for up to 17 days after passengers disembarked, far longer than previous research indicated it could.

‘Our Country Wasn’t Built To Be Shut Down’

The second full week of the American shutdown began with Dr. Jerome Adams—U.S. surgeon general—appearing Today to warn that the week ahead “is going to get bad.” And if Monday was any indication, he is right.

More than 45,000 Americans have now tested positive for the coronavirus, and that number will only climb. The New York Times reports that nearly half the country’s population is now subject to some kind of stay-at-home order. The Army Corps of Engineers is transforming the Javits Convention Center in New York into a 1,000-bed field hospital. Congress failed to reach agreement on a stimulus package that is becoming increasingly urgent as millions of Americans suddenly find themselves out of work or their hours reduced.

‘There Is No Perfect Answer To All This’

With all that said, of course it’s still important that American policymakers remain vigilant about which and how much economic pain can be avoided, if possible. Up on the site today, Andrew has a piece breaking down the thorny ways in which the two concerns play into one another:

“I think we are in the process of facing two public health emergencies,” he said. “The first is that caused by the suffering, hospitalization, and death caused by this virus. The second is the public health emergency that’s going to come when we have a major financial downturn. … You have joblessness, which leads to homelessness, which leads to despair, which leads to mental health-associated physical problems, which leads to depression, which leads to child abuse, which leads to domestic abuse, which leads to violence and crime.

“So it’s all a public health issue. It’s sort of pay me now, pay me later. There is no perfect answer to all this.”

Simply allowing the economy to stall out for months is likely to vaporize millions of jobs, forcing innumerable Americans out of their livelihoods, off their health insurance, even out of their homes. To stand by and allow such a collapse risks not only economic ruin, but a nearly guaranteed second public health crisis—exactly the thing we’d be supposedly tanking the economy to prevent.

Yet the opposite case promises no better. Epidemiologists speakwith one voice on this: If distancing efforts are abandoned too early, the coronavirus will simply resume its brisk and vicious colonization of the entire United States. Hospitals will totter under the impossible strain of trying to treat critically ill patients by the dozens, hundreds, thousands. Millions may die, both from the virus and from the simple lack of the medical resources and attention that is ordinarily abundant. And after all this—because of all this—the economy would tank again anyway.

If neither extreme is acceptable, then the nation’s task becomes working out what the proper balance, that brings the least harm to the most people, is likely to be. But this task too is incredibly difficult. It’s not a simple question of how many businesses we can ask to remain closed. Stabilizing the economy requires providing clarity to business owners about exactly how long they can expect the shutdown to last, so they can plan around the financial hit best they can in the meantime. But fighting the epidemic effectively requires exactly the opposite approach: Waiting for the data to come in on how effective containment has been before making any decisions about whether and where to relax active measures.

Worth Your Time

  • Yuval Levin has a great piece over at The Atlantic touching on some similar themes. “Right now, we need to pause. In order to restrain the spread of the virus, we have put our lives on hold—with work, school, and play all shut down to let us keep our distance from one another,” he writes. “At the same time, however, the pause we are in cannot last, even for the medium term. The notion that this is how we handle the virus until a vaccine is available—that the most intense social distancing with no school or work for large segments of society will go on for many months—is absurd. No policy maker should take it seriously. Rather, the purpose of the hard pause is to enable the gradual resumption of life to start soon.” Be sure to give it a read, and let us know what you think of his prescriptions on how to best gradually return to normalcy in the comments.
  • This Twitter thread—from Dr. Craig Spencer of New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center—provides a glimpse into the harrowing life of an emergency room doctor on the front lines of the fight against the coronavirus. His conclusion: “You might hear people saying it isn’t real. It is. You might hear people saying it isn’t bad. It is. You might hear people saying it can’t take you down. It can. I survived Ebola. I fear #COVIDー19. Do your part. Stay home. Stay safe. And every day I’ll come to work for you.”
  • Sen. Amy Klobuchar announced via Medium that her husband, John Bessler, has been hospitalized with a serious case of COVID-19. Her short post on the subject is worth reading in full. “I love my husband so very much and not being able to be there at the hospital by his side is one of the hardest things about this disease,” she writes. “I hope he will be home soon. I know so many Americans are going through this and so much worse right now. So I hope and pray for you, just as I hope you will do for my husband.”
  • Jim Geraghty has a great rundown of China’s catastrophic coronavirus obfuscation and the havoc it has wreaked across the globe, dating back to December, in his Morning Jolt newsletter. “You have probably not heard … how emphatically, loudly, and repeatedly the Chinese government insisted human transmission was impossible, long after doctors in Wuhan had concluded human transmission was ongoing,” he writes. “We can only wonder whether accurate and timely information from China would have altered the way the U.S. government, the American people, and the world prepared for the oncoming danger of infection.”

Presented Without Comment

Andrew Lawrence @ndrew_lawrence

Tx Lt Gov Dan Patrick says grandparents would be willing to die to save the economy for their grandchildren

Toeing the Company Line

  • The latest Advisory Opinions podcast isn’t all COVID-19—just mostly COVID-19! Join Sarah and David as they discuss the jurisdictional clash between the federal government and the states that could be coming down the pike if President Trump decides to ease up on social distancing guidance while governors forge ahead with lockdowns and quarantines. Be sure to stick around for a conversation about the U.S. women’s soccer team and its equal pay lawsuit. Download and subscribe here!
  • If you missed it Monday, Fredrick Hess and Nat Malkus looked at Kansas’s decision to close schools for the rest of the year and suggested that states have a little more time before they must make such a final decision.

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Alec Dent (@Alec_Dent), Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).